Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 16 Agt 2017, 11:42

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

RBA poised to act in current market


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The Australian dollar continues to be in a bit of a freefall as traders rally on the back of a resurging USD as well as a risk-off attitude when it comes to commodity currencies as of late. One of the major developments though around the Australian economy has been the rise in household debt which is being fed by low interest rates in Australia. Now the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is getting a bit worried and today's wage growth figures are likely to be quite major, on the basis that if the figures are showing sluggish growth then the RBA may be forced to act in the market. If the RBA does act it will be in the form of a rate rise and this would certainly be a double edged sword for the AUDUSD. It could be the case that it does help reduce debt levels, but fixed interest rate traders would look to jump back on board the AUDUSD train in a hurry, and a weak result today with wage growth could actually trigger a jump for the pair.

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On the charts the AUDUSD has cruised lower recently as the bears take hold, and it's looking very much like a classic retracement on the charts. So far it has pushed through the 20 day moving average and is looking like it will test support at 0.7761 and 0.7657 in the future if this slide continues. In the event it does look to push back upwards resistance levels can be found at 0.7901 and 0.8000, but a push through the psychological 80 cent level would be a very hard ask for the AUDUSD unless we saw a major turn in its economic good fortunes in the near future.

One of the more interesting developments has been the movements of the S&P 500 which had a large pull back in the previous week, but has managed to find some legs this week on the chart. American data was positive today on the basis that retail sales jumped to 0.6% m/m (0.3% exp) which is a positive for the US economy. However, there is still a large amount of worry in the markets around the current state of American politics which can swing on a day to day basis. This in turn has seen equity markets a little coy, and also a resurgence in speculative metal markets where traders are looking to hedge.

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The S&P 500 though has struggled to gain momentum today after a strong Monday opening. The push upwards today to come through the trend line was met with resistance and the likelihood of pushing through resistance at 2484 continues to be problematic as the market has show time and time again that any movements to this region seem to encounter bears who believe that we need a lot more information to go higher. If it does fall I'm still watching for that 100 day moving average to act as the first target level for traders and support levels at 2406 and 2353.


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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 23 Agt 2017, 15:36

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Bank Indonesia memberi kejutan pemangkasan suku bunga


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Investor benar-benar tak menduga bahwa pada hari Selasa ini Bank Indonesia memangkas suku bunga acuan untuk pertama kalinya sejak Oktober 2016 demi mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. BI memangkas suku bunga repo tujuh hari dari 4.75% menjadi 4.5% karena rendahnya konsumsi swasta memengaruhi sentimen dan pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Rupiah sangat melemah terhadap Dolar di hari Selasa pasca kejutan keputusan suku bunga ini. USDIDR bergerak mendekati 13350.

Indeks Dolar mendekati 93.50

Dolar menguat terhadap sekeranjang mata uang utama di hari Selasa saat perhatian investor tertuju pada rapat para tokoh keuangan di Simposium Jackson Hole pada tanggal 24-26 Agustus.

USD berupaya mencari arah bulan ini dan harga bergerak dalam rentang yang luas karena pasar menghadapi berbagai isu. Ketidakpastian agenda ekonomi Presiden AS Donald Trump terus menekan mata uang ini dan kekhawatiran terkait inflasi rendah di AS sangat mengganggu prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS. Walaupun Indeks Dolar sedikit menguat di hari Selasa, bulls tampak semakin kelelahan dan mungkin mengandalkan pernyataan Yellen sebagai inspirasi baru dalam memperkuat kurs.

Pasar akan sangat memperhatikan pidato Yellen di Jackson Hole hari Jumat ini dan mencermati apakah ada komentar terkait kebijakan moneter. Informasi baru dari Yellen terkait kebijakan terutama kapan Fed berencana untuk merampingkan neraca dan meningkatkan suku bunga AS tahun ini dapat memperkuat kurs Dolar.

Dari sudut pandang teknikal, Indeks Dolar tetap tertekan di grafik harian. Secara konsisten ditemukan level terendah yang lebih rendah dan level tertinggi yang lebih rendah sementara harga berada di bawah 20 SMA harian. Nilai yang terus lemah di bawah 94.00 dapat mendorong depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju 92.50.

Minyak mentah mengalami tarik menarik

Minyak mentah WTI kesulitan untuk mempertahankan peningkatan di hari Selasa dan harga akhirnya melemah menuju $47.50 karena masalah oversuplai masih terus membebani sentimen.

Ini adalah periode yang menarik untuk pasar minyak karena komoditas ini terjebak dalam tarik-menarik sengit karena berita yang berlawanan efeknya untuk bulls dan bears. Walaupun optimisme OPEC tentang kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi memberi dorongan spekulatif pada harga minyak, kurangnya kepatuhan terhadap kesepakatan ini di bulan Juli dan peningkatan produksi mencapai level tertinggi 2017 di bulan yang sama menarik perhatian bears. Tarik-menarik ini mungkin berakhir dengan aksi harga bearish untuk minyak yang menyiratkan bahwa investor semakin skeptis pada kemampuan OPEC untuk menyeimbangkan kembali pasar minyak.

Sentimen terhadap minyak tetap bearish di tengah masalah oversuplai dan kemungkinan bubarnya kesepakatan pemangkasan produksi OPEC apabila harga minyak gagal memantul dapat memperburuk sentimen investor. Dari sudut pandang teknikal, minyak mentah WTI telah menyentuh di bawah $48 dan $46.50 adalah level incaran penting berikutnya.

Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas tampak jelas mengalami tekanan di hari Selasa dan harga merosot menuju $1283 dengan stabilnya Dolar.

Terlepas dari penurunan jangka pendek yang terjadi, logam mulia ini tetap sangat terdukung oleh risiko geopolitik dan drama politik di Washington. Nuansa waspada masih terasa menjelang konferensi Jackson Hole pekan ini dan hal ini dapat memperkuat bulls emas. Dari sudut pandang teknikal, emas sangat bullish pada grafik harian karena secara konsisten level tertinggi yang lebih tinggi dan level terendah yang lebih tinggi. Bulls masih memegang kendali di atas support $1283 dan apabila harga melintas di atas $1293 maka dapat terbuka jalan menuju $1300. Di skenario alternatif, penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah $1283 dapat membuka jalan menuju $1270.


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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 30 Agt 2017, 16:53

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Emas akhirnya melampaui $1300. Rupiah tidak terpengaruh misil Korea Utara


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Rupiah berhasil bertahan terhadap Dolar di pertengahan hari Pasar Eropa Selasa ini walaupun pagi ini Korea Utara meluncurkan misil ke Jepang.

Perkembangan berita misil Korea Utara ini mengakibatkan penurunan pasar saham dan reli instrumen safe haven seperti emas dan Yen, tapi pasar tidak mengalami aksi jual berlebihan. Sedikit penghindaran risiko terjadi dengan menurunnya momentum beli mata uang negara maju dengan yield tinggi seperti Dolar Australia. Mata uang pasar berkembang dengan yield tinggi seperti Rand Afrika Selatan dan Lira Turki juga melemah. Sejujurnya, mayoritas investor sudah memperhitungkan perkembangan Korea Utara saat ini dan reaksi pasar berikutnya akan ditentukan oleh komentar dari Presiden Trump jika ada. Inilah yang perlu dipantau investor.

Ada atau tidaknya penghindaran risiko global akan sangat ditentukan oleh tanggapan Amerika Serikat terhadap peluncuran misil Korea Utara ke wilayah Jepang. Gedung Putih belum mengeluarkan tanggapan resmi pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Jika Trump memutuskan untuk menindaklanjuti masalah ini dan mengisyaratkan kemungkinan serangan, maka situasi akan menjadi kacau dan investor akan panik.

Emas akhirnya melampaui $1300

Emas diuntungkan oleh ketegangan peluncuran misil Korea Utara dan saat ini melampaui $1320 untuk pertama kalinya sejak November 2016. Perlu diperhatikan bahwa sebagian besar peningkatan harga emas di awal hari ini terjadi sebelum Korut meluncurkan misil. Ini berarti ada sejumlah faktor lainnya yang memperkuat emas. Faktor ini antara lain ketidakpastian reformasi Presiden Trump, termasuk ketidakpastian baru terkait penggantian Janet Yellen pada akhir masa jabatannya sebagai Ketua Dewan Gubernur Fed dengan tokoh yang memiliki visi yang lebih selaras dengan Trump berkaitan dengan deregulasi keuangan.

Setelah emas berhasil melampaui $1300, saya perkirakan momentum beli akan meningkat tajam dan investor mungkin bahkan akan membidik potensi untuk menguji level tertinggi 2016 di kisaran $1375. Terlepas dari kenaikan emas yang tiba-tiba, masih banyak alasan lainnya untuk terus optimis terhadap logam mulia ini. Ketidakpastian tentang kebijakan suku bunga AS, ketegangan geopolitik, batas atas utang, ancaman untuk membubarkan NAFTA, dan rendahnya kepercayaan terhadap kemampuan Presiden Trump untuk melaksanakan janjinya terkait reformasi legislatif dapat dianggap sebagai potensi pemicu bagi investor untuk terus memegang posisi emas.

Masih ada waktu untuk membeli Yuan

Setelah memberi sinyal "beli" yang jelas kepada pasar pada awal Agustus saat USD/Yuan tanpa terduga tergelincir ke level psikologis 6.70, mata uang China ini mengalami tekanan beli yang luar biasa. Terlepas dari perkembangan bulan ini, saya tetap berpendapat bahwa masih ada ruang untuk apresiasi kurs Yuan.

Jika kita bandingkan Yuan dengan sekeranjang mata uang lainnya, dalam hal kinerja sejak awal tahun terhadap Dolar, kita akan melihat bahwa Yuan baru menguat sekitar 5% terhadap Dolar di 2017. Euro, Dolar Australia, dan Yen Jepang juga telah menguat lebih hebat terhadap Dolar dan saya berpendapat bahwa Yuan perlu mengikuti kekuatan yang terlihat di sejumlah mata uang utama ini. Ini adalah satu faktor mengapa saya tetap bullish terhadap Yuan, dan fakta bahwa pasar masih sangat negatif terhadap Dolar mendukung pandangan saya ini.


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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 14 Sep 2017, 11:08

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Rupiah sedikit melemah terhadap Dolar



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Rupiah sedikit melemah terhadap Dolar pada perdagangan hari Rabu. USDIDR bergerak di kisaran 13194 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan.

Pasar masih mencerna fakta bahwa penjualan ritel bulan Juli Indonesia merosot tajam 3.3% yang merupakan kontraksi pertama dalam hampir enam tahun terakhir. Walaupun data yang kurang menggembirakan ini mengganggu sentimen, namun prospek umum ekonomi Indonesia tetap menjanjikan dan investor memantau apakah target pertumbuhan PDB 5.2% dapat tercapai di tahun 2017.

Dollar melemah jelang rilis inflasi

USD sedikit melemah terhadap sekeranjang mata uang mayor di hari Rabu saat perhatian pasar tertuju pada data inflasi AS bulan Agustus yang akan dirilis esok hari.

Laporan IHK hari Kamis sangat penting, terutama meninjau bahwa inflasi yang bertahan di level rendah menjadi salah satu penghalang utama yang mengganggu ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS. Aksi harga menyiratkan bahwa bears masih memegang kendali atas Dolar dan investor semakin skeptis akan kemampuan Fed untuk meningkatkan suku bunga lagi sebelum akhir tahun. Data inflasi yang lemah di bawah estimasi pasar di hari Kamis dapat semakin mengganggu prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS dan membuat Dolar semakin melemah.

Dari sisi teknikal, Indeks Dolar tetap bearish pada grafik harian. Nilai yang terus lemah di bawah 91.50 dapat memicu penurunan lebih lanjut menuju 91.00. Sebaliknya, penutupan harian di atas 92.00 dapat membuka jalan menuju 92.25.

Pertumbuhan upah mengecewakan, GBP melemah

Sterling rentan mengalami penurunan tajam pada sesi perdagangan hari Rabu setelah data pertumbuhan upah Inggris Raya mengecewakan yaitu stabil di 2.1% hingga bulan Juli.

Walaupun tingkat pengangguran Inggris Raya turun ke 4.3%, level terendah sejak 1975, ini diimbangi dengan rata-rata upah mingguan yang mengecewakan yaitu hanya tumbuh 2.1%.

Pertumbuhan upah tampak jelas kesulitan untuk mengikuti inflasi yang saat ini berada di level 2.9%, sehingga semakin mempersulit situasi bagi rumah tangga. Selisih antara upah dan kenaikan harga semakin melebar sehingga muncul kekhawatiran tentang daya tahan pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris yang berbasis konsumen.

Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas bertahan di hari Rabu di saat saham dunia menguat namun USD agak terguncang.

Walaupun ketegangan di Korea Utara mendukung logam mulia ini, namun peningkatannya mungkin terbatas menjelang data inflasi hari Kamis. Rilis IHK AS berpotensi memengaruhi ekspektasi tentang kapan Fed akan meningkatkan suku bunga, sehingga emas yang sangat sensitif terhadap ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga akan terkena dampak langsung. Inflasi As yang mengecewakan akan sangat menguntungkan bagi emas.

Saya meyakini bahwa emas masih menarik, terlepas dari kembalinya selera risiko, dan berpotensi semakin menguat karena ketidakpastian politik di Washington dan situasi geopolitik membuat investor mencari aman.

Dari sudut pandang teknikal, emas tetap bullish di grafik harian. Breakout di atas $1340 dapat membuka jalan menuju kenaikan yang lebih besar lagi ke arah $1350. Di skenario alternatif, breakdown dan penurunan berulang kali di bawah $1325 berpotensi mendorong penurunan lebih lanjut menuju $1315 kemudian $1300.



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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 19 Sep 2017, 10:19

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Menanti data pertumbuhan kredit Indonesia


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Perhatian pasar akan tertuju pada rilis data pertumbuhan kredit Indonesia di hari Selasa yang dapat memberi gambaran tentang perubahan total kredit dan sewa sepanjang bulan Agustus. Peningkatan pertumbuhan kredit adalah indikasi bahwa perekonomian Indonesia mungkin mengalami akselerasi tahun ini. Rupiah dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan berpotensi semakin menguat apabila pertumbuhan kredit di bulan Agustus melampaui ekspektasi.

Terkait prospek forex, Rupiah sedikit melemah terhadap Dolar di hari Senin dan harga bergerak mendekati 13250. Rupiah dapat mengalami volatilitas pekan ini, terutama sehubungan dengan keputusan suku bunga Bank Indonesia hari Jumat pekan ini.

Sterling melaju ke level tertinggi tahunan

GBP mengguncang arena valas pekan lalu. Mata uang ini melaju ke level tertinggi sejak hasil voting Brexit karena komentar Brexit dari pejabat BoE Gertjan Vlieghe.

Vlieghe, seorang yang sangat dovish, tanpa terduga mendukung pendapat hawkish bank sentral ini sehingga memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Inggris Raya sebelum akhir 2017. Pasar kini memperkirakan probabilitas sangat tinggi akan terjadinya kenaikan suku bunga sebelum akhir tahun, sehingga GBP berpotensi semakin menguat.

GBP/USD bullish pada grafik harian, dan momentum positif ini berlanjut di pekan trading baru. Penutupan harian di atas 1.3400 dapat memberi cukup dukungan pada bulls untuk membidik 1.3700.

[img]https://www.forextime.com/images/maa/gbpusdweekly_1.png?itok=joevzBvv[[/img]

USD tetap tertekan

Dolar tertekan terhadap sekeranjang mata uang mayor di hari Senin setelah rilis data penjualan ritel AS yang mengecewakan di hari Jumat.

Semakin jelas bahwa kekecewaan yang semakin besar mengenai kegagalan Trump untuk mengimplementasikan reformasi pajak dan merealisasikan proposal belanja fiskal telah merusak sentimen beli USD. Masalah inflasi yang rendah di AS masih mengganjal prospek kenaikan suku bunga dan menekan Dolar, sehingga sepertinya situasi akan semakin menurun.

Dari sudut pandang teknikal, Indeks Dolar tetap bearish di grafik harian. Breakdown di bawah 91.50 dapat mendorong penurunan lebih lanjut menuju 91.00 dan kemudian 90.00.

Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas mengalami tarik menarik antara bulls dan bears dan ini terefleksikan pada aksi harga komoditas ini yang naik turun tajam. Bulls mendapat dukungan dari ketegangan geopolitik, Dolar yang melemah, dan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga yang semakin menipis sehingga harga bertahan di atas $1315. Para penjual terinspirasi oleh laporan bahwa Republikan akan merilis kerangka kerja reformasi pajak bulan ini yang dapat memperkuat Dolar. Laporan IHK AS yang positif pada Kamis pekan lalu membuat emas semakin menurun di awal karena ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS meningkat.

Tarik menarik ini hampir mencapai puncaknya, dan pemenangnya mungkin ditentukan oleh di mana harga ditutup pekan ini. Penutupan mingguan di bawah $1315 menandakan berakhirnya tren bullish di grafik harian, dan target berikutnya adalah $1300. Dalam skenario alternatif, penutupan mingguan di atas $1340 akan membuka jalan menuju $1350 dan lebih tinggi lagi.

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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 26 Sep 2017, 10:04

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Bank Indonesia pangkas suku bunga acuan, Rupiah melemah


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Pasar finansial benar-benar dikejutkan pada hari Jumat setelah Bank Indonesia tanpa diduga memangkas suku bunga acuan utama untuk bulan kedua berturut-turut di bulan September.

BI memangkas suku bunga 7-day repo sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 4.25% untuk mendorong pertumbuhan kredit dan konsumsi. Langkah mengejutkan dari BI juga menunjukkan keyakinan BI dalam mempersiapkan kebijakan moneter AS yang lebih ketat dan mengatasi inflasi domestik. Rupiah melemah terhadap Dolar di hari Jumat pasca pemangkasan suku bunga dan ini berlanjut di sesi perdagangan hari Senin. Spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember memperkuat Dolar sehingga mata uang pasar berkembang termasuk Rupiah berpotensi melemah.

Para trader teknikal akan terus mengamati bagaimana perilaku USDIDR di atas level 13300. Dolar yang menguat akan mendorong pasangan mata uang ini menuju 13350.

Harga WTI stabil di atas $50.50

Minyak mentah WTI stabil di atas $50.50 pada sesi perdagangan hari Senin karena optimisme bahwa strategi OPEC untuk memangkas produksi minyak sebesar 1.8 juta barel per hari akan mampu menyeimbangkan pasar.

Rapat OPEC pekan lalu telah memberi inspirasi baru bagi bulls dan ini terefleksikan pada aksi harga minyak saat ini. Walaupun komoditas ini mungkin menguat di jangka pendek karena optimisme saat ini, kenaikan produksi minyak di Nigeria dan Libya dapat menjadi hambatan.

Komitmen OPEC untuk memangkas produksi minyak sepertinya memperkuat harga minyak, namun kenaikan harga minyak ini juga mendukung minyak serpih (shale oil) AS.

Dari sudut pandang teknikal, minyak mentah WTI bullish di grafik harian. Breakout di atas $51.00 dapat membuka jalan menuju kenaikan yang lebih besar lagi ke arah $52.00. Di skenario alternatif, penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah $50 dapat membuka jalan menuju $48.50.

Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas kembali bearish pekan lalu karena peningkatan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember. Logam mulia ini tetap sangat sensitif terhadap ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga dan dapat semakin merosot apabila spekulasi semakin besar bahwa peluang peningkatan suku bunga Fed tahun ini semakin besar. Walaupun ketegangan geopolitik di Korea Utara mungkin membuat pasar mencari aman, namun bears sepertinya mengabaikan hal ini seperti yang tergambar dalam aksi harga.

Dari sudut pandang teknikal, para penjual memegang kendali setelah penutupan mingguan di bawah $1300. Penurunan berulang kali di bawah $1300 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju $1280.

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Sorotan Komoditas - EURUSD

EURUSD merosot pada sesi perdagangan hari Senin menuju 1.1870. Walaupun hasil pemilu Jerman mungkin berperan dalam aksi jual ini, koreksi teknikal masih dapat terjadi. Breakdown di bawah 1.1800 dapat membuka jalan menuju 1.1750. Dalam skenario alternatif, apabila 1.1800 dapat dipertahankan maka harga dapat memantul menuju 1.1920.

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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 12 Okt 2017, 16:32

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It is all about inflation


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When the Federal Reserve met on 19-20 September, it announced the start of winding down the $4.5billion balance sheet and maintained plans for a third-rate hike in 2017. The statement reflected confidence in the economic activity particularly the pickup in household spending and growth in business investments. Despite the storms Harvey and Irma, the central bank was still confident the U.S. economy would keep its momentum, and Janet Yellen sounded more hawkish than markets anticipated. This was all good news for the U.S. dollar which rallied for three weeks after the meeting, appreciating 2.3% against a basket of currencies.

The primary concern was low inflation. Fed chair Janet Yellen described it as something of a "mystery." When an institute which employs over 300 Ph.D. economists still doesn’t know whether low inflation is persistent or transitory, the risk of tightening monetary policy further might be a huge policy mistake if inflation did not return to normal levels. The Phillips Curve Model which theorizes that there should be a strong inverse relationship between unemployment and price inflation is apparently not working, and probably it is time for the Fed to drop this theory and find new models.

Yesterday’s Fed minutes reflected such worries. Several members insisted that the decision of raising rates for the third time in 2017 should depend on economic data which increase their confidence that inflation would move towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The dollar bulls did not like the statement despite expectations of a December rate hike remained above 80% according to CME’s Fedwatch Tool. The dollar index continued to fall on Thursday for the fifth day in a row, with overall declines of 1.5% from Oct-6 highs.

Given that inflation has become the most important economic metric impacting the dollar’s direction, today’s PPI and more importantly tomorrow’s CPI should be watched very closely. Any upside surprise would curb the dollar’s fall; however, a disappointing figure would be an excuse to keep dragging the USD lower.

The Euro performed very well, climbing to the highest level in more than two weeks at 1.1878. After Carles Puigdemont suspended the process of Catalonia's independence, Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has given him five days to say whether or not he has declared independence. Depending on the response, the government in Madrid could impose direct rule on Catalonia. I think the overall crisis in Spain is still underpriced, and if no agreement is reached in the next couple of days the stability of the Eurozone as a whole would be at risk. Although economic fundamentals continue to support a stronger Euro, politics will play a significant role as to where the Euro heads next. ECB’s Mario Draghi will participate today in the annual meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF in Washington. Any new hint provided will move the single currency.

Despite no advances made in the Brexit negotiations, Sterling continued to trade higher against the dollar for the fourth consecutive day. Although Brexit will keep weighing on Sterling on the longer run, monetary policies seem to be the major driver for now. Expectations of BoE raising rates in the final quarter of 2017 remained high, thus narrowing monetary policy divergence with the Federal Reserve. I think in the next couple of days, Sterling will be driven by economic data rather than Brexit negotiations.


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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 24 Okt 2017, 10:31

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AUD traders wait for CPI figures


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The Australian dollar has taken a beating in recent trading days, as the selling in it was mainly a result of the recent NZ election which dragged on the AUDUSD. This may come as a surprise, but there is some correlation between the two when it comes to their pairing with the USD. However, this selling has now stopped and markets are focused on the CPI data due out in coming days, which will provide some strong direction. The current expectation is a big rise in CPI data from 0.2% q/q to 0.8% q/q, which would bring inflation in that 2% target. Going further above the 2% target we can expect this to raise the attention of fixed rate markets who will be looking to see if this gives ammunition to the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift rates. The economy does seem to be bouncing back so this catalyst could lead to the bulls rushing back into the AUDUSD, as it continues to look stable and lack any political risk when compared to NZ at present - which has a degree.

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With all this in mind where to for the AUDUSD. Well there are two ways to look at it and a weaker USD is not the answer here. If we do see a weaker CPI result then I could see the AUDUSD whacked and pushed lower to support at 0.7729, but it shouldn't have a massive impact. On the upside if we saw a CPI reading that beat expectations and markets felt it might be sustained then I could see resistance at 07900 targeted, with long term upside potential of hitting further resistance levels at 0.8000. Either way you look at it there is potential for bigger movements in the AUDUSD and potentially the AUDNZD as well, but CPI figures will have a big impact on market sentiment for the rest of the week.

Shinzo Abe got what he wanted as he swept back into power after this weekend's elections and the USDJPY was quick to respond by losing some ground on the Monday open, as Yen bulls appeared in the market. The continuation of Abenomics will be interesting, it has been one of the greatest economic experiments of its time. The reality though is that it has not really caused the expected result and may have created more problems. Markets however are expecting that the Bank of Japan governor will be replaced and another more hawkish governor could be brought in to create further change from a monetary policy point of view.

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For the USDJPY traders it's a good time to be bullish, but also realise that the USDJPY does like big levels and to move sideways from time to time as well. Resistance at 114.258 thus far has been a hard ask for the market and I am expecting to see a real test here. If we can see a push through then further extensions to 115.322 are likely to be on the cards here. But USD strength will also need to hold up and it has suffered recently.



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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 15 Des 2017, 11:11

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US retail sales beat expectations



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It's been a funny day for the USD as it slipped lower on Tax legislation worries. For the most part it has fallen around two senators who are keen to fix the current child tax credits. In reality this is something republicans are likely to help remedy in order to get this bill over the final hurdles and in front of the president to sign before Christmas. However, for me the big mover - and what might have a much more interesting impact - was of course today's retail sales which lifted sharply to 0.8% m/m (0.3% exp). This is a very strong move just ahead of the December rush season and in return we could expect to see GDP forecasts raised for the 4th quarter going forward. I would be surprised if we didn't see solid earnings this season in the equity markets as well given the huge rises in consumer and business confidence. For now it would seem the Trump effect might be still there after all heading into the new year.

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One of the key areas this was felt was on the USDCAD which was swinging heavily today, not only on the USD weakness but also Bank of Canada comments which pushed up the chances of a rate hike for March next year. For the most part the USDCAD has been ranging for some time, and it has struggled to break through the major resistance level at 1.2921, which has so far seemed like an impossibility at present. One of the main reasons also has been the 200 day moving average bearing down on that level which of course adds further pressure. At the same time the swing lower today failed to stay below support at 1.2759 which leads me to believe that the bulls are still in this market despite the Canadian recovery we've seen. If the bulls do leap back into the market 200 day moving average will be the key level to close above, and if we do close above then expectations are that we could see a move upwards to the 1.3000 level. For now though it's a case of waiting to see if the ranging does stop and the trends continue.

The other key one to watch out for is the AUD, with the market likely to be looking forward now to next week's RBA minutes on the economy and their thoughts after the most recent unemployment figures. We could certainly see the case made for a potential rate rise in the future, but for now it's a case of wait and see - even though the market is fairly bullish.

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Chart wise, and it's clear the AUDUSD bulls are back in fashion and looking to make up some ground. After the positive news yesterday and weak USD it is a surprise to see that it has failed to climb higher to the 200 day moving average and resistance at 0.7687. I still believe this is a key level to watch and if we do see further extensions it could lead to bigger things. For now though like the USDCAD it's a case of wait and see as the market looks to enter Friday trading.



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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 28 Des 2017, 16:11

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Dollar selloff in final trading week of 2017


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With only two trading sessions remaining for 2017, liquidity dried up across the global markets. This has been obvious in U.S. and European equities, where volumes dropped significantly. However, some investors continued to tweak their portfolios slightly, leading to insignificant price action. I don’t expect equities to deviate much throughout Thursday and Friday.

Interestingly though, traders continued selling off the U.S. dollar. One could blame Wednesday’s U.S. consumer confidence report which fell from a 17-year high, but the dollar was declining before the release. I think the best explanation for the dollar weakness is the sharp fall in U.S. Treasury yields.

10-year bond yields dropped 7 basis points on Wednesday, to reverse almost 50% of the gains from mid-December towards last week, where yields broke above 2.5% for the first time since March 2017.

Despite appetite for risk sending Asian equities to record highs on Thursday, the safe haven Yen is outperforming its major currency peers. USDJPY dipped below 113 for the first time in six trading days after the release of Bank of Japan meeting minutes. Some members are considering tightening monetary policy, if the economy continues to improve next year. This would be a significant shift in strategy for a Central Bank thought to be the last to exit the unconventional stimulus packages. However, I don’t think the BoJ will move anytime soon due to subdued inflation; but, given the lack of liquidity, moves in currency markets may be exaggerated.

Commodity currencies are also enjoying a decent upside, after copper prices rallied to their highest level in almost four years.Oil prices remained close to a two and a half year high, and gold hit a one- month high. Considering that no Tier One economic reports will be released, the Aussie, Kiwi, and Loonie will continue to follow commodity prices direction.



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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 08 Jan 2018, 16:13

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A critical week for the US Dollar after a fragile start




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After having the worst annual performance since 2003, the dollar continued to struggle in the first trading week of 2018. The dollar index fell to a three-and-a-half-month low to trade below 92, leaving many traders wondering whether this year will be another devastating one for the greenback. When looking at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, speculators are not showing interest in buying the U.S. dollar yet, and the latest bunch of data did nothing to support the dollar.

Friday's jobs report did not motivate the dollar bulls to return, with non-farm payrolls rising 148,000 in December versus expectations of 190,000. Although I think the numbers weren’t bad and the labor market remains healthy with unemployment at 4.1%, wages are not yet showing signs of accelerating, and this remains the key missing ingredient of the U.S. economy’s recovery.

The latest minutes of the Fed’s meeting also showed that policymakers aren’t sure whether inflation will return to the central bank’s target which is why markets believe that only two rate hikes will occur in 2018, as opposed to the three in the Fed’s dot plot. This week many Fed speakers are due to speak including the two dissenters against a rate hike in December, Neel Kaskhari and Charles Evans. Whether they have changed their mind, or still believe rates shouldn’t be hiked, remains to be seen but we’ll also tune into other Fed speakers for fresh insights.

If the Fed speakers don’t deliver news, tier one economic releases may provide the needed clues. Consumer prices and retail sales are both due for release on Friday. Given that energy prices spiked in December consumer prices are expected to increase 0.2%. However, I think traders will be more interested in the core CPI figure, which strips out volatile items like food and energy. Any upside surprise in the inflation numbers will likely bring back the dollar bulls.

Given that the major U.S. economic releases are four days away, many traders will focus on whether any technical breakouts will occur. EURUSD failed to break above 1.2092 (2017 high) last week, but a successful breakout will likely lead to further buying of the single currency towards 1.22. Similarly, Sterling is only 100 pips short of 1.3656 (2017 High). So traders should keep a close eye on these levels.



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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 26 Jan 2018, 12:26

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Rupiah menguat menjelang rilis data investasi asing langsung




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Sebagian besar mata uang pasar berkembang menguat pada sesi perdagangan hari Kamis di saat Dolar merosot ke level terendah baru dalam tiga tahun terakhir.

Rupiah menguat terhadap Dolar pada perdagangan hari Kamis. USDIDR bergerak ke bawah 13280, level yang tak pernah tersentuh sejak September 2017. Apabila posisi Dolar tetap melemah, mata uang pasar berkembang termasuk Rupiah dapat terus terangkat. Perhatian akan tertuju pada laporan investasi langsung asing di hari Jumat yang mungkin menjelaskan seberapa banyak investasi asing yang masuk ke Indonesia pada kuartal terakhir 2017. Peningkatan investasi dapat memperkuat optimisme terhadap ekonomi Indonesia dan meningkatkan sentimen beli terhadap Rupiah.

Indeks Dolar anjlok di bawah 89.00

USD terus melemah terhadap sekeranjang mata uang utama pada hari Kamis pagi setelah merosot malam harinya karena komentar dari Menteri Keuangan AS, Steven Mnuchin.

Mnuchin mengatakan bahwa Dolar yang melemah "bagus" untuk perdagangan AS, sehingga investor bearish menyerang USD tanpa ampun dan mengakibatkan Indeks Dolar turun ke bawah 89.00 pada awal sesi perdagangan. Sentimen terhadap Dolar semakin bearish dan ini tergambar dari aksi harga yang tertekan. Dari sudut pandang teknikal, Indeks Dolar tetap sangat bearish di grafik harian. Breakdown dan penutupan harian di bawah 89.00 dapat menyebabkan penurunan lebih lanjut menuju 88.00.

Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas melonjak ke level tertinggi yang belum pernah tercapai sejak Agustus 2016 di atas $1360 karena Dolar AS sangat melemah.

Logam mulia ini tetap sangat bullish pada grafik harian dan dapat semakin meningkat karena USD rentan melemah. Breakout tegas dan penutupan harian di atas $1360 dapat menyebabkan peningkatan lebih lanjut menuju $1375. Bulls tetap terdukung di atas level support dinamis $1340.

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Sterling meningkat ke atas 1.43

GBPUSD sangat bullish di grafik harian terutama karena USD yang rawan melemah. Kombinasi lemahnya USD dan optimisme Brexit dapat mengangkat GBPUSD menuju 1.4300 dan kemudian 1.4370. Indikator lagging teknis seperti MACD dan 50 MA mendukung kecenderungan bullish di grafik harian dan mingguan.

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Bitcoin masih jadi sorotan

Bitcoin tampak lemah dan goyah pekan ini. Uang kripto ini kesulitan untuk bertahan di atas $11,000.

Kegelisahan terasa karena Korea Selatan melarang trading uang kripto anonim dan pelarangan uang kripto oleh China cukup berdampak pada selera terhadap Bitcoin. Dari sudut pandang teknis, Bitcoin tetap bearish di grafik harian. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah $11,000 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju $10,000. Sebaliknya, break di atas $12,000 dapat memicu peningkatan menuju lower high $13,000.



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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 31 Jan 2018, 15:18

FXTM Forex Market Update | 31/01/2018

Video terbaru dari #FXTM#MarketUpdate bersama Research Analyst ForexTime, Lukman Otunuga


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Saham global berada di bawah tekanan pada hari Selasa karena investor tetap berhati-hati menjelang pertemuan Federal Reserve. Dolar berjuang untuk menahan diri terhadap sekeranjang mata uang utama sementara Sterling dipukul oleh kegelisahan Brexit. Di arena komoditas, Emas diuntungkan dari Dollar yang rentan. Risiko acara utama hari ini adalah kesaksian BoE Mark Carney dan kepercayaan konsumen CB untuk Amerika Serikat.

- #EURUSD tetap bullish di daily charts
- #GBPUSD saat ini menuju 1.4175
- #Gold bulls mencari $ 1360


Cek video nya Di sini


Jangan lupa cek juga Analisis Pasar terbaru FXTM @ http://fxtm.co/marketupdate-yt


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Re: Daily Technical Outlook FXTM

Postoleh FXTM Official » 20 Mar 2018, 16:03

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Tech selloff drags down global equities



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The steep losses in U.S. technology stocks were carried into Asian markets today with all major indices tracking Wall Street declines. Facebook made the headlines on Monday as reports over the weekend claimed that data from 50 million users was accessed without their permission. The stock fell 6.8% and wiped out almost $37 billion from its market cap. The news will undoubtedly scare advertisers, especially if it leads to regulators changing Facebook’s business model in a way which it may impact the company’s revenues.

Investors should not only be worried about the drop in Facebook equities but also FAANG stocks which have been leading the bull market for many years. Alphabet dropped 3% yesterday, while Apple, Netflix, and Amazon declined 1.53%, 1.56%, and 1.7% respectively. While the fall in Facebook might have impacted the sector negatively, it does not explain the full picture. Concerns that the European Commission will impose new taxes on Tech firms in retaliation for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, is an early indication that the trade war should be taken more seriously. If markets decided to turn on FAANG stocks, we would likely see a similar reaction to last February’s correction.

Jay Powell Fed & the dots

The newly appointed Fed Chair, Jay Powell will hold his first press conference tomorrow when the U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 2018. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis point rate increase, so do not expect this to have any influence on the dollar’s direction.

The key to dollar traders is how Fed officials, led by the new Chair, will act on recent economic data and whether the fiscal stimulus will eventually lead to tighter monetary policy in 2018. Market participants are split on whether the Fed will project four rate hikes in 2018 compared to three in the last meeting. An upward shift in the dot plot should support the dollar, although it is likely to lead to further flattening in the U.S. yield curve.

Brexit transition deal sends Sterling higher

The pound was the best performing currency on Monday rising 0.6% against the USD to trade back above 1.40. A Brexit deal was thought to be more positive for Sterling, but given that no agreement was reached on the Irish border, gains were capped. I believe that Sterling may still have further room to appreciate against its peers especially if Consumer prices today and wage data tomorrow provide new signs of inflationary pressure before Bank of England meet on Thursday.



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