Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Diskusi Mengenai Faktor Fundamental dalam Forex, Berita Ekonomi Yang Mempengaruhi Pergerakan Pasar, dsb.
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 23 Nov 2017, 10:02

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

IHSG menguat, USD tertekan


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Kombinasi menguntungkan antara kenaikan profit korporat, pertumbuhan global yang pesat, dan optimisme tentang pemangkasan pajak korporat AS memperkuat saham global pada hari Selasa sehingga bursa saham di seluruh dunia pun berkibar.

Saham Asia bergerak menuju rekor penutupan sejak awal perdagangan hari Rabu karena Wall Street meningkat pada malam sebelumnya. Di Indonesia, bursa saham menguat karena membaiknya selera risiko. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan meningkat 0.63% dan ditutup pada 6069.785. Sentimen terhadap ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara ini positif karena fundamental ekonomi semakin baik. Karenanya, IHSG dan Rupiah sepertinya akan tetap terdukung. Terkait prospek forex, Rupiah menguat terhadap Dolar AS di hari Rabu. USDIDR diperdagangkan menuju 13520. Peningkatan optimisme terkait prospek ekonomi Indonesia berpotensi terus memperkuat Rupiah.

Emas mencari arah

Emas menguat pada sesi perdagangan hari Rabu mendekati $1283 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan.

Aksi harga yang naik turun tajam dalam beberapa hari terakhir menjadi gambaran dahsyatnya tarik menarik antara bulls dan bears. Walau ketidakpastian politik di Eropa dapat membuat pasar tertarik mencari aman, namun sepertinya investor emas lebih khawatir dengan nilai Dolar.

Karena emas sangat terpengaruh oleh nilai Dolar, kecenderungan dalam notulen rapat FOMC yang akan dirilis Rabu ini dapat memegang peran penting dalam harga emas pekan ini. Emas dapat mengalami tekanan jual lagi apabila notulen FOMC bernada hawkish. Kejutan dovish dapat mengangkat harga emas.

Dari perspektif teknis, harga saat ini berkisar di $1280 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah $1280 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju $1267.


Gambar


Dollar melemah menjelang rilis notulen rapat FOMC

USD melemah terhadap sejumlah mata uang pada hari Selasa setelah pernyataan Yellen yang bernada waspada memperkuat ekspektasi pasar tentang peningkatan suku bunga Fed dengan laju yang bertahap.

Yellen memperingatkan bahwa kenaikan suku bunga yang terlalu drastis dapat mengganggu upaya Fed untuk mencapai target 2% dan menekankan kembali fakta bahwa alasan rendahnya inflasi AS tahun ini masih belum diketahui. Ketua Dewan Gubernur Fed yang akan segera turun jabatan ini tidak yakin apakah inflasi AS yang terus menerus rendah hanya bersifat sementara atau berkelanjutan. Investor perlu memikirkan bagaimana hal ini akan memengaruhi strategi kebijakan moneter Fed di tahun 2018.

Perhatian akan tertuju pada notulen rapat FOMC terkini di hari Rabu yang mungkin memuat isyarat mengena prospek kenaikan suku bunga Fed di masa mendatang. Pasar secara umum telah memperkirakan bahwa suku bunga AS akan ditingkatkan Desember ini. Investor sepertinya akan meneliti notulen ini untuk mencari wawasan baru mengenai kebijakan moneter AS setelah 2017.

Dari sudut pandang teknikal, Indeks Dolar tertekan di grafik harian dan resistance terlihat di 94.00. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah level ini dapat memicu penurunan lebih lanjut menuju 93.50. Pada skenario alternatif, harga yang melintas di atas 94.15 akan mengancam kondisi bearish saat ini dengan level target berikutnya di 94.50.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 28 Nov 2017, 15:44

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Stocks drop, currencies range bound & bitcoin eyes $10,000


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Most Asian indices edged lower on Tuesday, following a mixed session on Wall Street yesterday. China is becoming a key market to watch, as it’s leading the direction for other markets across Asia. Rising bond yields are threatening corporate profit margins for the second largest economy; meanwhile Chinese authorities are helping to drag equities lower, after sending alarming messages about a potential bubble being created in large-cap firms. Given that China continues to focus on quality rather than quantity growth, it’s not surprising to witness action of this nature from the Chinese government in an attempt to mitigate bubbles in asset prices. However, such actions may have a negative impact on sentiments that could spread across other Asian markets.

U.S. equity traders are in a wait-and-see mode. President Trump will meet senators today at their weekly policy lunch, to ensure that Republicans are on the same page regarding the tax system overhaul. I firmly believe that U.S. legislative tax reforms are strongly “priced in” the U.S. markets, thus if significant tax reforms do not pass, I expect a substantial decline in major indices, particularly in small caps. Given that the effective tax rate currently stands at around 27%, taxes should be brought below 25% to be effective. Republican Senator Ron Johnson said he would vote against the bill unless his concerns about the legislation are resolved. Given that other Republican Senators share Johnson worries on deficit implications, passing the bill does not seem to be a done deal yet.

Currency markets were trading in narrow ranges early Tuesday, as investors brace for UK bank stress test results, BoE’s Carney Speech and the Fed speech, including Powell’s Congressional address. On the data front, the U.S. Goods Trade Balance, and the Housing Price Index are likely to have minimal impact on the USD.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin scored a new record high of $9,886 in an attempt to break above the critical $10,000 threshold. Bitcoin has become a very hot topic and many fund managers have raised the price target for the cryptocurrency. Yesterday, former Fortress hedge fund manager Michael Novogratz commented on CNBC, that bitcoin could be at $40,000 by the end of 2018 and he expects that total market capitalization could reach $2 trillion, from $309 billion currently. I think that we will hear more skyrocket predictions, but few will provide an economic metric that supports their valuations. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts when Bitcoin breaks above $10,000.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 30 Nov 2017, 11:35

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Pound rallies on divorce bill rumours



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It's been a crazy day on the markets and the GBPUSD has been a clear winner when it comes to movements today as the Market has reacted positively to the so called 'Divorce Bill' from the EU that Britain is meant to pay. So far people are expectong the figure to come in around 50-60 billion pounds that would be paid out over 40 years. Obviously, this is a large number for any sovereign nation, but it enables Britain to plow forth in its so called negotiations. The market is now looking for the next steps for the UK economy, as it expect to see some sort of trade negotiations come out of all of this. I do think that it might be a bit of a while off that we do see something realistic, the fact being that a) the UK has no strong leg to stand on, and b) it's always a long road to what people expect will be a result. Either way the volatility in the GBPUSD is likely to continue into the near future especially with the current pace of news and politics involved in Brexit.

Gambar

On the charts it's clear to see that the bulls are back into the market and are climbing higher. Yesterday we were talking about the 1.33 levels, and today we are in the 1.34 levels which shows the market is keen on these talks. After touching resistance at 1.3438 the market has pulled back to take a breather, but the real key level is to be found at 1.3588 which is where bullish traders will be looking to aim in this market. In the even the bears do regain control and look to push it lower then support at 1.3339 is likely to be a prime candidate for support as well as 1.3256. Traders should also be aware of the previous trend line which continues to be an obstacle for any bears in the current market.

The US also continued its stellar run today with US pending home sales m/m lifting by 3.5% (1% exp) once again showcasing the strength in the USD. On top of the traders were also somewhat bullish about the first round of the senate tax review of the Trump tax bill, which is likely to boost the US economy - even though running a deficit for a bit. One of the big losers for this has been the commodity currencies which have been bearish against the USD with all this support.

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For me the NZDUSD continues to be one of those currencies that will struggle with a resurgent USD in the current market climate. So far all the candles have shown exhaustion by bulls in the market as the NZDUSD dipped under resistance at 0.6891. The market is now looking to extend further lower to 0.6834 and 0.6802 on the charts, as the market looks to push it back into the red. For me the bulls are going to be a real threat until the USD gives up some ground as the NZ economy is still struggling in the interim while it figures out a new government.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 06 Des 2017, 11:05

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Market waits on Bank of Canada


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With a US tax bill and a Brexit currently flying around in the markets it's hard not to get lost on the bigger picture for other countries as well. However, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is one that we should all be paying attention to as in the next 24 hours they will have their monthly interest rate decision, as well as follow up conference to the market. Now a interest rate is not priced in at present - in fact the odds are very low, but the BoC has a habit of surprising markets and the recent employment figures were very positive adding further weight to the potential for a rise. I don't anticipate we will see a surprise interest rate jump, however the words that will be used will be vital for the market when it comes to pricing in the next interest rate rise and of course are likely to have a big impact on the Canadian dollar. It's not always about oil for the Canadian economy, but one thing is clear there is certainly more to offer on the trading calendar than oil updates.

Gambar

So far the USDCAD has been a big mover and has held up nicely on the charts in preparation for the upcoming announcement. So far the USD has been losing ground against the CAD after traders were quick to attack on USD weakness and the strong jobs report. Any movements higher on the USDCAD were likely to struggle regardless with resistance at 1.2759 and 1.2921, but also with the 200 day moving average starting to ebb lower and showing a pattern of being respected strongly by the USDCAD. Movements lower are likely to find support at 1.2628 and 1.2516 in the current market, but I would also watch out for the oil figures as well, as a strong drawdown would put further bearish pressure on the USDCAD.

One of the key metal markets which has been moving sharply lower recently has been silver which has been reacting sharply to the boost in equities. There has been talk recently that metals could potentially be replaced by Bitcoin and the likes, but I don't believe they represent a tangible hedge like precious metals do in the current environment. What is clear that the US economy booming is starting to have a negative effect on the price of silver and the market is starting to shift lower as a response.

Gambar

I've always been a fan of silver and the trend is looking quite strong on the charts so far for the bears. Support has held up nicely at 15.996, with the potential to move event further lower to 15.556. Resistance is currently high in 16 dollar region at 16.546 and 16.863 at this stage. All in all though the bearish trend is strong and could continue in the current environment if we don't see any large hiccups.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 07 Des 2017, 13:57

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

CAD in focus on dovish comments


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The Canadian dollar was back in focus today as the market was looking for hawkish signs from the Bank of Canada, on the back of the recent interest rate statement. The interest rate was kept at 1% however, and the market was caught off guard by the dovish comments made by the BoC. While the economy has been adding new jobs and Fridays figures were a testament to that (+441,400), the BoC is still concerned about the NAFTA negotiations that are ongoing, as well as recent housing market developments. This came as a shock for a lot of market pundits, but more important it forced forecasts further out for future rate rises, while before the market was betting heavily on the BoC to come through and cause further positive betting on rate rises.

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The USDCAD was quick to jump on the back of the news out from the BoC, as USD bulls rushed away with all the recent gains and pushed through resistance at 1.2759. Further levels higher can be found at 1.2921 with the potential for any higher gains to the 200 day moving average - which would be very hard to push through. If the market does turn around and head back south then support at 1.2628 and 1.2516 are likely to be the prime candidates for bearish traders, with the area between these two levels likely to act as a key selling point on the market.

Crude has been one of those funny players in the market as of late with a bullish rise, which has been purely on the back of OPEC extending production cuts. Now for many this comes as no surprise as the oil market did need to stabilise but today's fall caught many off guard given that the drawdown came in stronger than expected at -5.61M (-2.5M exp). The reason for this was refined oil products with gasoline showing an increase to 6.8M barrels, beating market expectations and causing the oil market to sell-off. Selling pressure is common when you have a build up of refined products as the market might start to think it's flagging or peaked already.

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Oil now finds itself in a weird place at present as the recent rise has struck strong resistance at 59.08 in this market, and the fall today hit the current old trend line which the market is respecting before taking a pause and stopping all together. I'm not sure if there is further potential falls on the cards given the bulls have been so strong, and this could be an excuse to unwind. However, if the trend line did break then support could be found at 55.14. If oil does indeed jump back higher, then for me resistance at 57.38 and 59.08 are the key levels traders will look to target. Expectations are though that 59.08 will be the level to beat currently.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 11 Des 2017, 15:29

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Bitcoin future trading kicks off; Investors awaiting central banks decisions



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Trading bitcoins entered a new phase today, after Chicago’s CBOE listed the first futures contract on the cryptocurrency. The initial reaction was beyond expectations with the futures contract climbing more than 20% and triggering two trading halts. CBOE’s website experienced unprecedented traffic which may well have sent a new benchmark, the frenetic activity lead to delays and outages. So far, it seems professional investors aren’t willing to bet against the bitcoin, despite the many warnings of a bubble that will burst soon. Many traders aren’t even interested in the price direction, but the listing of the futures contract on CBOE and later next week on the CME, will provide them an arbitrage trading opportunity due to the vast pricing differences. However, the arbitrage trading will lead to improved price efficiency and probably less volatility. After volatility settles down, the focus will return to the price direction.

Central Banks Meetings

Currency markets were trading in tight ranges early Monday with the dollar slightly weaker against its major peers. Expectations of the Fed hiking rates on Wednesday, stands at 90.2% according to CME’s Fedwatch tool which means the disappointment in wage growth won’t shift the needle for US monetary policy. However, it isn’t the rate hike that will move the dollar on Wednesday, it’s the tone, economic projections and the dot plot. Given that we’re getting closer to a deal on tax reforms, the Fed might become slightly more hawkish. It remains to be seen whether this will shift up the Fed’s dots for future interest rate expectations.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England are also meeting this week. Despite no substantive monetary policy changes expected, the language might still move the Euro and the Pound.

Will the Fed support further rotation in stocks?

Tech shares have been in focus over the past two weeks after the S&P tech index plunged more than 4% between 29-Nov and 05-Dec, before recovering last week. The fall in Teck stocks wasn’t accompanied by a selloff in other sectors, particularly the financials which have been on the rise. This is a classic type of rotation with active managers balancing their portfolios before year end. Tax reforms don’t seem to be of great support to Tech firms, given that their effective tax rate is considered to be the lowest in the U.S. Meanwhile, it’s a big deal for the rest of the U.S, with financials having an effective tax rate of more than 30%. The new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell will likely speed up deregulation for the financial sector which will drive more inflows. And of course, higher interest rates for 2018 will further support the banks' profit margins. That’s why the trajectory of interest rates in 2018 will likely lead to more portfolio balancing before year end.

EU Summit

The breakthrough in Brexit talks on Friday was a great relief for policymakers, who can now move to phase-2 of the talks. Interestingly though, Sterling instead of rising sharply, dropped on the news. Investors seem reluctant to buy Sterling as they view the next phase more complicated than the first. They want to see details of the transition agreement and trade talks concluded before buying Sterling. I don’t think the EU summit on Friday will reveal much, but blessings from EU leaders might lend some support to the Pound.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 21 Des 2017, 15:23

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Equities reaction muted on tax breakthrough; Watch the bond market



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Asian markets woke up on Thursday to the news that Republicans had passed the long-awaited tax bill. President Trump is now just a pen stroke away from overhauling the tax code. Interestingly there aren’t any fireworks on the announcement of Trump’s Christmas gift; because as expected, the good news is already priced in.

In fact, the reaction was more evident in fixed income markets. U.S. 10-year bond yields traded above 2.5% for the first time since March 2017, allowing the yield curve to steepen after flattening for most of 2017. The spread between 2-year and 10-year treasury bonds climbed more than 12 basis points, reaching 63 basis points, after falling to its lowest level in a decade last week. The spike in long-term bond yields is supposed to be positive for the U.S. dollar, as it suggests the Federal Reserve should become more aggressive in tightening policy next year. However, the dollar’s reaction was muted because there’s another side to this story. The additional supply of U.S. bonds due to the unfunded tax cuts, will probably make U.S. treasuries less attractive in the longer run, and given that most central banks are trying to catch up with the Federal Reserve, yields in Europe and other markets are also anticipated to move higher in 2018, thus narrowing the interest rate differentials gap.

The enormous expected increase in U.S. deficit will also put the U.S. sovereign credit rating at risk. If any of the credit agencies- Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch downgrades the U.S. sovereign rating, yields will spike even higher. However, the impact on the dollar won’t necessarily be positive, with the opposite reaction being more likely.

The Yen’s reaction was also muted to Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision. As expected, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged at -0.1% and maintained its 10-year bonds yield target at around 0%. Given that weak inflation is expected to continue dominating the monetary policy outlook, I don’t expect any significant change in policy next year. Thus, the Japanese Yen will continue to take its cue from risk appetite/aversion in equity markets for the foreseeable future.

Euro traders are awaiting the outcome of today’s Catalonia’s election. Polls are suggesting that it will be a tight race between the Catalan Republican Left party, which supports independence and Ciudadanos which is in favor of a unified Spain. Given that the election is not expected to be decisive and parties may form coalitions to govern, the risk of tensions flaring with Madrid again, remain limited.


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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 04 Jan 2018, 11:52

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

FOMC minutes give some life back to dollar bulls



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The latest FOMC minutes have given the bulls something to be happy about, as the FED once again looked to keep the pace of rate hikes in the near future. There were some key takeaways from the meeting and the most pressing was that FED officials expect inflation to rise to 2% in the medium term as the Tax bill has a impact on the US economy. Expectations were also strong that pressure on the labour market as unemployment further drops would also help boost inflation expectations, and that potentially forecasting of inflation may also have been low historically. So with the FED looking forward in 2018 and Trumps man Powell about to come to the table we could potentially see some strong bullish moves from the FED with a strong US economy in front of them.

Gambar

For the USD bulls it was positive across the board with large rises against all the major pairs, but mainly the European ones. For me one of the more interesting ones continues to be the USDCAD which lifted slightly, but is still lacking the momentum required to break out of the current bearish trend it finds itself in. So far traders will be watching to see if there is a bounce at support at 1.2427 to see if the bulls can come back into the market, otherwise they could be waiting until 1.2108 to see any sign of a solid bounce. If we see a push back higher 1.2628 and 1.2759 are likely to be the first key levels of resistance. However, the 200 day moving average is creeping down and likely to also act as dynamic resistance in the current market climate.

For me the main thing that keeps on going in the bullish American climate is the equity markets at present, and look no further than the S&P 500. It's getting hard to believe that there is an end, but at some point the bears will look to swipe. For now though, the Trump effect and the recent Tax reform coupled with a FED with positive forecasts is driving American companies higher than ever before and in the process lifting the S&P 500 higher than ever before. Most weeks we are seeing a new record high at present, but that being said uncertainty could be the instability that shakes the bulls off the top for a bit.

Gambar

On the charts, and as previously stated, the focus would ideally be on psychological levels - as the market continues to rise it will look for these points. I would anticipate that markets will continue to look for key levels at 2725 and 2750 if the bulls look to push higher. Any swings lower are likely to get held up at 2700 as it acts as support in the current market. However, a push through would be treated with concern as generally speaking the 2600 and 2500 level were previously very good at holding back the bears.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 10 Jan 2018, 16:16

FXTM Forex Market Update | 09/01/2018

Video terbaru dari #FXTM#MarketUpdate bersama Research Analyst ForexTime, Lukman Otunuga


Ekuitas ekuitas global berada di sekitar selama sesi perdagangan hari Selasa karena saham dunia tetap berada pada level yang lebih tinggi. Di arena mata uang, Dollar mengapresiasi optimisme di atas suku bunga AS yang lebih tinggi. Dengan kalender ekonomi yang relatif ringan saat ini, aksi harga mungkin menentukan di mana perdagangan mata uang dan komoditas.

- #EURUSD ditekan di bawah 1,20 pada grafik harian
- #GBPUSD Bears mengincar 1.3520
- #Gold tetap bullish diatas $ 1300


Cek Video di sini https://youtu.be/Hrm0PybPt74


Jangan lupa cek juga Analisis Pasar terbaru FXTM @ http://fxtm.co/marketupdate-yt


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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 12 Jan 2018, 11:34

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Bitcoin anjlok, saham global stabil


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Bitcoin anjlok tanpa ampun di hari Kamis mencapai di bawah $13000 setelah Korea Selatan mengumumkan rencana untuk melarang perdagangan uang kripto.

Tekanan jual semakin diperhebat oleh komentar tokoh besar finansial, Warren Buffet, yang memperingatkan bahwa "uang kripto akan menemui akhir yang buruk". Bitcoin memasuki tahun baru ini dengan kesulitan untuk kembali bersinar dan bulls sama sekali tidak menampakkan dirinya pekan ini. Apakah gegap gempita uang kripto sudah berakhir?

Kita paham bahwa lilin biasanya berkobar paling besar sebelum meredup. Apakah ini yang akan terjadi pada Bitcoin dan sebagian besar uang kripto tahun ini? Hanya waktu yang akan menjawabnya.

Dari aspek teknis, Bitcoin jelas terlihat mengalami tekanan di grafik harian. Harga kesulitan untuk berada di atas $13000 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah level ini dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju $12000 kemudian $10000.

Harga minyak melonjak ke level tertinggi bertahun-tahun

Harga minyak jelas terlihat bullish pekan ini walaupun ada kekhawatiran bahwa reli saat ini mulai melemah. Harga minyak mentah WTI memasuki level yang tak pernah tersentuh sejak Desember 2014 di harga $64 pada sesi perdagangan hari Kamis. Sentimen membaik karena persediaan minyak mentah AS turun di luar dugaan dalam data resmi hari Rabu.

Semakin jelas bahwa gangguan pasokan signifikan, risiko geopolitik, dan optimisme bahwa pemangkasan produksi OPEC dapat menyeimbangkan pasar adalah sejumlah faktor di balik bangkitnya minyak. Harga minyak mungkin akan terus menguat karena optimisme pasar saat ini, namun perlu diingat bahwa peningkatan produksi minyak serpih AS dapat mengekspos minyak ke risiko penurunan. Secara teknis, minyak mentah WTI sangat bullish di grafik harian dengan breakout di atas $64 dapat membuka jalan menuju $65.60.

Saham global bervariasi, reli Wall Street mereda

Sebagian besar saham Asia melemah pada awal perdagangan hari Kamis setelah Wall Street merosot dalam semalam. Saham Eropa dibuka bervariasi karena kehati-hatian pasar dan sentimen ini dapat menular ke pasar saham AS hari ini.

Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas sedikit menguat di hari Kamis karena Dolar melemah dan berada di kisaran $1320 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan.

Dolar masih belum stabil dan kesulitan untuk menguat sehingga emas masih tetap di atas angin. Dari sudut pandang teknis, logam mulia ini memenuhi prasyarat tren bullish di grafik harian. Terdapat level tertinggi yang konsisten lebih tinggi (HH) serta level terendah yang lebih tinggi (HL) sedangkan MACD juga mengarah ke atas. Bulls tetap memegang kendali di atas $1300 dan breakout tegas serta penutupan mingguan di atas $1320 akan membuka jalan menuju $1333.

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Rupiah menguat terhadap Dolar

Rupiah menguat terhadap Dolar pada perdagangan hari Kamis. USDIDR bergerak di kisaran 13397 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Dolar dapat terus melemah dengan level target berikutnya di 13370. Apabila optimisme yang meningkat terhadap ekonomi Indonesia terus mendukung Rupiah, USDIDR dapat mengalami tekanan jual di jangka pendek atau menengah.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 24 Jan 2018, 11:46

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Australian dollar looks weaker on commodity falls



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The Australian dollar has been doing okay against the USD in recent times on the back of the commodity boom that has been promising. However, there have been some minor hiccups so far with iron ore prices dropping 4.4% overnight on the Asian exchanges. This in theory could present some minor problems for the Australian dollar as exporting of minerals and metals plays a significant impact on the economy. What is most interesting though is the relation to the NZD, with the AUDNZD being a key focus for traders at present. The NZ economy continues to remain robust and it's commodity based exports have seen some value in recent times with the global dairy auctions as of late. Add in the fact that the recent services PMI was also positive and you have a strong combination for the NZ economy and of course the NZD. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also undergoing some reforms but so far these have not frightened of the market.

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So for the AUDNZD it's a case of the bigger neighbour struggling against the smaller one on the currency chart. So far we've got a strong trend line pushing the bears down the chart and stopping and bullish activity taking hold, add into the mix a very strong support level and it's likely we will see some volatility look to break out of the flag pattern here. Resistance can be found at 1.0933 and 1.0982 on the charts, but I would be mainly focused on the trend line which will likely stop any bulls becoming too aggressive. Support levels are looking interesting, with 1.0855 the level to beat for the market as this is a strong level, anything through this could touch on 1.0809. Going below any of these levels could be a hard mask for the market though at present as the AUD is a bigger economy, so it could dig itself out of a hole compared to its neighbour. It's also worth remembering that the AUDNZD is at a low when you look over a very long time frame.

Once again it's been another great day for US equity markets as they climbed the charts hitting record highs again. So far the S&P 500 is not looking like it will stop and the NASDAQ continues also to be a great runner as well. For the bulls it seems that the Trump effect is shining on further more in these markets.

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Looking at the S&P 500 and it has climbed up to resistance at 2850 before taking a breath. Expect markets to look to tackle the level again tomorrow if there are no curve balls. Any extension above 2850 is likely to find some further resistance at 2875. Markets will also be looking at possible support levels as well, and they can be found at 2825 and 2809 in the current market climate.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 02 Feb 2018, 10:58

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Dolar melemah walau Fed hawkish, Emas tergelincir



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Sungguh luar biasa melihat Dolar tetap terpuruk walaupun Fed menyatakan optimisme pada tekanan inflasi yang meningkat di tahun ini.

Walaupun sesuai ekspektasi Fed tidak mengubah suku bunga di bulan Januari, pandangan yang relatif optimis tentang ekonomi dan peningkatan ekspektasi inflasi memberi nuansa hawkish. Fakta bahwa Dolar tetap tertekan walau rapat Fed hawkishmenyiratkan bahwa berbagai faktor fundamental lain memengaruhi mata uang ini. Janet Yellen bersiap untuk menyerahkan tongkat estafet kepada Jerome Powell dan hal ini menjadi perbincangan terutama tentang bagaimana dampaknya terhadap Dolar, kebijakan moneter, dan ekonomi AS.

Terlalu awal untuk menerka bagaimana pengaruh FOMC di bawah kepemimpinan Powell akan memengaruhi ekonomi AS dan ini adalah ketidakpastian yang menyebabkan Dolar melemah. Perlu diperhatikan pula bahwa ada banyak gubernur Fed baru, dan Powell adalah seorang pengacara, bukan ekonom. Walaupun Fed mungkin menghindari rintangan dengan bertahan di status quo, namun masalah dapat terjadi jika ekonomi AS mengalami goncangan tak terduga.

Hal lain yang terus menekan Dolar adalah ketidakpastian politik di Washington dan kekhawatiran tentang posisi Amerika Serikat di perdagangan global. Prospek bahwa bank sentral penting lainnya akan mengetatkan kebijakan moneter secara bertahap juga memperburuk sentimen beli, dan ini mengakibatkan Dolar dapat terus melemah.

Dari sudut pandang teknis, Indeks Dolar tetap sangat bearish di grafik harian. Ditemukan level tertinggi yang konsisten lebih rendah serta level terendah yang lebih rendah saat MACD mengarah ke bawah. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah 89.00 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju 88.50 kemudian 88.00.

Rupiah melemah jelang rilis NFP AS

Rupiah melemah terhadap Dolar di hari Kamis dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan ditutup lebih rendah sementara investor bersiap menyambut data NFP AS yang akan dirilis pada hari Jumat. Sehubungan dengan valas, USDIDR dapat mengalami pantulan teknis tajam di grafik harian. Breakout di atas 13440 dapat membuka jalan menuju 13460. Sebaliknya, penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah 13440 dapat mendorong depresiasi menuju 13400.

Sorotan mata uang - GBPUSD

GBP melemah pada sesi perdagangan hari Kamis karena data manufaktur Inggris lebih rendah dari ekspektasi dan merusak sentimen. Aktivitas sektor manufaktur Inggris turun di bulan Januari dari 56.2 di bulan Desember menjadi 55.3. Laporan yang mengecewakan ini dapat memberi inspirasi bagi bears untuk menyerang GBP.

Dari aspek teknis, GBPUSD terus mendapat support dalam bentuk lemahnya USD di grafik harian. Breakout yang menentukan dan penutupan harian di atas 1.4230 dapat membuka jalan untuk peningkatan menuju 1.4300. Sebaliknya, jika harga gagal bertahan di atas 1.4230 maka akan memicu penurunan menuju 1.4110 dan 1.4000.

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Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas mengalami tekanan jual di hari Kamis. Harga emas merosot di bawah $1330 setelah Fed mengisyaratkan akan melakukan lebih banyak kenaikan suku bunga tahun ini.

Walaupun emas dapat terus melemah di jangka pendek, USD yang rentan melemah dapat membatasi penurunan logam mulia ini. Emas tetap bullish di grafik harian dan dapat semakin menguat apabila laporan NFP yang dirilis Jumat ini gagal memenuhi ekspektasi pasar. Dari aspek teknis, Emas masih dalam proses menciptakan higher low baru. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah $1335 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi menuju $1324.15. Sebaliknya, breakout intraday di atas $1340 dapat membuka jalan menuju $1360.

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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 07 Feb 2018, 11:42

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Equity markets shake of the bears



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Markets have been hot and cold today as equities saw some intense volatility. For most, it was the beginning of the end at the start of the week, but the close of Tuesdays bell in the US has been so far fairly bullish. Many in the market had been expecting further falls, but so far most investors have been quick to push back on the basis that macroeconomic indicators are still strong, and there is no deterioration compared to 2008 which saw heavy falls as a result. I'm inclined to agree at this statement given the history of the markets and of course that for most economies they're looking to lift rates and cut back QE. There has been of course some minor wobbles with the US economy and Europe in the past, but so far it's full steam ahead and yields are looking good.

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The S&P 500 had a crazy day today and it would not have been for the faint hearted as the market looked to dive deeper, pushing all the way down to the 200 day moving average before starting to make a solid recovery. The 100 day moving average was ignored on the way up, but that's not surprising given the aggressive nature of these moves, but nonetheless technical's did come into play with the market hitting resistance at 2698 to pause and breath. The next level up for the bulls if they get to continue will be at 2743. Support levels if the market were to turn can be found at 2628 and 2564, but the major one will be the 200 day moving average which has so far managed to beat back the bears on such an aggressive day of volatility. I would be surprised to not see the same sort of aggressive volatility tomorrow as markets prepare for another big day again.

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Across the Atlantic in European markets the FTSE has been hammered in the previous week, but finally clawed back some major gains in line with the rest of the globe in the evening. For a while it looked like a bullish trend line may come into play, but the Monday sell-off put that out of the question and the bears took full control. The recovery today, however, was very strong and saw the market climb back up to support at 7278 as traders looked to breath - much like the S&P 500. I would be surprised to see further gains here for the FTSE as UK equities have not been as impressive on the back of Brexit. So we could see resistance levels really push back bulls in the market. On the other hand sharp drops to 7205 and 7100 are not off the cards if the bears can really get there claws back into the equity markets at present.

All in all, at present the global equity markets present a unique opportunity, but a lot of risk when it comes to the amount of volatility. Movements like these are rare and powerful, but for traders they can come with heart palpitations.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 19 Feb 2018, 17:04

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Global shares extend recovery; dollar remains weak



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Asian equity markets continued to build on last week’s gains, after U.S. stocks capped their best week since 2013. Investor sentiment has gradually improved after fears of rising inflation sent most global indices into correction territory. The Cboe’s Volatility Index (VIX) ended Friday’s session below 20, suggesting that indictments from Special Counsel Robert Mueller against 13 Russian nationals for alleged interference in the 2016 elections did little to impact investor decisions. With the U.S. markets closed on Monday for President’s Day and the Greater China region remaining offline for the Lunar New Year, expect trading volumes to be below average.

The U.S. Dollar’s weakness remained a bit of a mystery for many currency traders, as it is supposed to follow differential in yields. The gap between U.S. and German 10-year yields widened to 217 basis points, and had gained 28% since mid-July 2017. Similarly, U.S. – Japan 10-year yields widened 285 basis points, the highest increase since 2007. Still, the Dollar declined against the Euro, Japanese Yen and all other major currencies.

One explanation for why the correlation between the Dollar and yield differentials has broken recently, is that financial market participants are forward-looking. Investors believe that rising inflation in the U.S. will spread to other economies, leading to tighter monetary policies elsewhere. When major central banks such as the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan begin normalizing policies, rate differentials will narrow at a fast pace, given that they are starting from a very low base.

Yields in the U.S. are not just rising because of higher inflation expectations, but also due to rising twin deficits – the fiscal and current account. This should make U.S. debt less attractive, and gold will likely become the primary beneficiary as it continues to benefit from inflationary pressures and budget deficit worries.

However, this view may change if the Fed decides to take a more aggressive approach in fighting inflation. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes will likely reveal fresh hawkish insights, but for the dollar to make a U-turn, it requires the Fed to tighten policy faster than previously estimated. Any indication of four rate hikes instead of three in 2018 will do the trick, but this is unlikely to appear in Wednesday’s minutes, and investors will probably need to wait until the March meeting.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 23 Feb 2018, 10:21

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PDB Inggris Mengecewakan, Dolar Menguat dan Rupiah Melemah



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Sebagian besar mata uang Asia tertekan pada sesi perdagangan hari Kamis karena Dolar AS menguat. Rupiah melemah terhadap Dolar yang secara umum menguat pada perdagangan hari Kamis. USDIDR melonjak menuju 13680 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Notulen rapat FOMC yang hawkish pada bulan Januari memicu ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS, dan mata uang pasar berkembang termasuk Rupiah mungkin semakin melemah. Perhatian investor akan tertuju pada rilis data pertumbuhan kredit Indonesia di hari Jumat yang dapat memberi gambaran tentang total kredit dan sewa sepanjang bulan Januari. Kenaikan pertumbuhan kredit yang solid akan meningkatkan sentimen positif terhadap Indonesia dapat meningkat pula.

PDB Inggris mengecewakan, Pound tergelincir

Sentimen terhadap Pound merosot pada hari Kamis karena pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto Inggris di kuartal terakhir 2017 di luar dugaan direvisi menjadi lebih rendah.

Office of National Statistics melaporkan bahwa ekonomi Inggris Raya hanya tumbuh 0.4% di Q4 2017, turun dibandingkan estimasi awal pada bulan lalu yaitu 0.5%. Pertumbuhan tahunan 2017 juga direvisi dari 1.8% menjadi 1.7%. Laporan PDB yang mengecewakan hari ini tidak akan mengubah arah hawkish yang diambil Bank of England saat ini, namun dapat menimbulkan tanda tanya baru di benak para investor mengenai prospek ekonomi Inggris tahun ini. Ini dapat meningkatkan ketidakpastian yang membuat Pound rentan mengalami penurunan.

Dolar yang menguat dapat memberi inspirasi untuk bears mengantarkan GBPUSD menuju di bawah 1.3900. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah 1.3900 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju 1.3850 atau bahkan lebih rendah lagi.


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Notulen FOMC hawkish, Dolar menguat

Bulls memegang kendali pada Rabu petang karena notulen rapat FOMC Januari yang hawkish mendukung ekspektasi pasar mengenai kenaikan suku bunga AS tahun ini.

Notulen rapat Fed menunjukkan optimisme mengenai prospek ekonomi Amerika Serikat. Para pengambil kebijakan semakin optimis bahwa inflasi dapat menyentuh target 2%. Poin penting dari notulen rapat Januari adalah sebagian besar anggota Fed sepakat bahwa “ekonomi yang menguat dewasa ini meningkatkan kemungkinan bahwa suku bunga akan semakin ditingkatkan secara bertahap”. Investor bullish menyambut gembira pernyataan hawkish ini. Indeks Dolar melonjak menuju 90.20 pada Kamis pagi. Dari aspek teknis, Indeks Dolar berpotensi menantang level 90.55 setelah penutupan harian di atas 90.00.

Sorotan Komoditas - Minyak Mentah WTI

Sungguh menarik mencermati turunnya harga minyak pada hari Kamis walaupun American Petroleum Institute (API) melaporkan di hari Rabu bahwa persediaan minyak mentah AS menurun di luar dugaan.

Penurunan harga minyak saat ini sangat mungkin disebabkan oleh Dolar AS yang menguat dan prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS. Sebagian mungkin berpendapat bahwa minyak mentah WTI tetap terdukung oleh komitmen OPEC untuk memperketat pasar, namun aksi harga sepertinya tidak mendukung hal itu dan bears tetap menunggu untuk unjuk diri. Produksi minyak serpih AS yang terus meningkat dikhawatirkan akan menjegal upaya OPEC untuk mengatasi masalah oversuplai, dan harga minyak tetap terpapar pada risiko penurunan.

Perhatian investor akan tertuju pada data persediaan yang dirilis oleh Energy Information Administration (EIA) hari ini untuk mengetahui apakah produksi AS terus meningkat. Peningkatan persediaan dapat menyulut kekhawatiran oversuplai dan memukul harga WTI. Dari aspek teknis, WTI dapat tergelincir menuju $60 apabila bears dapat mencapai penutupan harian yang solid di bawah $61. Sebaliknya, breakout di atas $61.80 dapat membuka jalan menuju $62.50.



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