Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Diskusi Mengenai Faktor Fundamental dalam Forex, Berita Ekonomi Yang Mempengaruhi Pergerakan Pasar, dsb.
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 27 Feb 2018, 11:06

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Testimoni Powell dan data makro dominasi pergerakan pasar



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Pasar saham Asia dimulai dengan bergairah, mengikuti arah positif Wall Street di hari Jumat lalu.

Bulls sepertinya memegang kendali setelah S&P 500 mengalami reli 1.6% di hari Jumat dan imbal hasil Treasury bergerak semakin jauh dari level kritis 3%. Reli yang luas di hari Jumat dipimpin oleh sektor utilitas, energi, dan teknologi, dan ini menyiratkan bahwa investor mulai mengabaikan kekhawatiran tentang kenaikan suku bunga. Penurunan VIX Cboe sebesar 11.9% di hari Jumat juga mengindikasikan bahwa volatilitas terburuk mungkin telah berlalu. Walau demikian, investor tidak boleh bersantai dulu, karena pekan ini adalah pekan yang sibuk, didominasi oleh testimoni Ketua Dewan Gubernur Fed baru, Jay Powell, di hadapan Kongres serta rilis data penting dari AS dan Eropa.

Notulen FOMC terbaru menunjukkan bahwa para pengambil kebijakan kini semakin hawkish, namun rute kenaikan suku bunga belum berubah signifikan berdasarkan FedWatch CME. Investor memperkirakan probabilitas 62% tiga kenaikan suku bunga di tahun 2018, dan ini menandakan bahwa pasar menganggap bahwa Powell tidak banyak berbeda dengan Yellen.

Normalisasi kebijakan secara bertahap dengan tiga kenaikan suku bunga di tahun 2018 mungkin menjadi skenario yang paling mungkin dalam pesan Powell. Isyarat kenaikan suku bunga keempat akan mengguncang pasar, sama seperti aksi jual yang terjadi bulan lalu.

Bentuk kurva imbal hasil juga menjadi indikator risiko yang penting. Walaupun kurva imbal hasil yang mendatar menandakan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi melambat, tapi selalu disambut gembira oleh investor selama beberapa tahun terakhir. Sejak November 2013 hingga akhir Januari 2018, spread swap Treasury 30-5 tahun merosot ke 41 bps, level terendah sejak 2007. Ini diikuti oleh rekor baru di sektor saham. Indikasi dari Powell bahwa kebijakan fiskal Trump harus diiringi dengan suku bunga jangka panjang yang lebih tinggi juga dapat menjadi tantangan bagi saham. Walau begitu, melihat imbal hasil Treasury saat ini, sepertinya para trader obligasi tidak khawatir.

Beralih ke rilis data, Belanja Konsumsi Personal (PCE) Inti AS di hari Kamis akan sangat diperhatikan karena ini adalah tolok ukur inflasi favorit Fed. Kenaikan di atas 0.3% akan kembali memperhebat kekhawatiran bahwa Fed perlu meningkatkan suku bunga dengan laju yang lebih cepat. Investor juga akan mengamati data PDB kedua AS, pemesanan barang tahan lama, penjualan rumah, pendapatan & belanja personal, PMI manufaktur, dan level keyakinan konsumen.

Rupiah menguat terhadap Dolar, IHSG turun

Rupiah membuka pekan trading ini dengan gemilang. USDIDR turun menuju 13655 karena Dolar melemah.

Walaupun seperti mata uang pasar berkembang lainnya Rupiah tertekan oleh ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga, namun penurunan ini dapat ditahan oleh prospek ekonomi Indonesia yang menjanjikan. Sinyal pertumbuhan ekonomi yang positif di Indonesia meningkatkan optimisme terhadap negara ini, sehingga Rupiah dapat semakin menguat. Menariknya, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan merosot 0.98% dan ditutup di 6554.673 pada hari Senin. Saham global menguat di sesi perdagangan hari Senin setelah pantulan yang dialami Wall Street di hari Jumat, jadi sepertinya aksi jual yang dialami IHSG mungkin dipengaruhi oleh upaya ambil untung.




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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 28 Mar 2018, 10:50

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Markets continue to look unsettled



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Markets were looking a little unsettled today after yesterdays bullish rise in equity markets. Many had expected that potentially today would see equity bulls look to retake further ground after the recent loses but they were hampered by economic data, as US consumer confidence missed expectations coming in at 127.7 (131 exp). Many had expected a slight rise, as the US economy has been booming and unemployment continues be at record levels, but perhaps the recent political turmoil's are weighing down on the American people. For the most part traders will be eagerly watching tomorrows US GDP results and of course US home sales, to try and gauge the strength of the economy over the last quarter, and for home sales to see if they're improving in line with analysts expectations. Any strong bearish signals could send the equity markets into a bit of a spin, but it's definitely worth watching as right now volatility is very high.

Gambar


For me the S&P 500 continues to be the one to watch, right now the technical's are very strong and the market is not keen to just lurch forward like previously in some sort of bullish trance. The traders have woken up and are very keen to make the most of it! So far resistance at 2664 is holding back further movements higher after today's disappointing result. In the event of the bears looking to take hold we could see a push down to 2628, but weak economic news could see the all important 200 day moving average retested. In the event we see a push upwards I would be watching the 2693 resistance level and the 100 day moving average, as it sets up a strong technical challenge for the bulls in the present climate. All in all US equities and the S&P 500 continue to be for me the one to watch, especially when playing the technical's as of late.

Spare a thought for the Australian dollar, as lately it has lost the spring in its step. It continues to struggle against the USD as of late, even when it's weaker. So far things are not looking up either economically, and with no economic news this week things could be a little tough as technical traders and USD bulls take hold of things.

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On the chart it's clear to see that we're sitting in a bearish wedge, further down the line we could see a potential breakout to the upside. However, for the time being the feeling is quite bearish and resistance today at 0.7760 continues to look quite intimidating for any bulls in the market. When you throw in a 100 day moving average which has been quite tough then things seem almost insurmountable for any bulls in the market. If the bears do get their way then a fall to 0.7546 looks on the cards, but I would also watch the walls of the wedge for dynamic support of course. Any breakthrough and close through the wedge wall should be treated as a very bearish signal.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 03 Apr 2018, 12:13

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Inflasi Indonesia meroket di bulan Maret, Rupiah menguat



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Harga konsumen di Indonesia meningkat di bulan Maret karena kenaikan harga BBM dan bahan makanan.

Inflasi Indonesia melonjak menjadi 3.4% YoY di bulan Maret, lebih tinggi dari 3.18% di bulan Februari. Laju inflasi Indonesia di level 3.4% masih berada dalam target tahunan Bank Indonesia sebesar 2.5%-4.5%, sehingga kebijakan moneter BI mungkin mengalami status quo. Upaya berkelanjutan BI untuk mempertahankan stabilitas makroekonomi dan finansial mungkin dapat mendukung konsumsi domestik sehingga menstimulasi pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Rupiah menguat terhadap Dolar setelah data inflasi diumumkan. USDIDR bergerak di kisaran 13749 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Rupiah yang menguat dapat mengantarkan USDIDR menuju 13730 di waktu dekat.

Data kembali jadi sorotan utama pekan ini

Saham Asia membuka Q2 dengan positif, diawali dengan reli Wall Street di hari Kamis. Kenaikan ini terjadi walaupun China menetapkan tarif balasan terhadap impor AS dan data PMI Manufaktur gagal mencapai proyeksi ekonom.

Sejauh ini China baru membalas tarif aluminium dan baja yang diumumkan Gedung Putih bulan lalu, dan belum membalas pengajuan tarif tahunan $60 miliar terhadap produk China. Hal ini menyiratkan bahwa Beijing tidak ingin membuka perang perdagangan dengan AS dan mengetahui bahwa perang justru akan lebih merugikan. Walau begitu, sengketa perdagangan masih sangat memengaruhi keputusan investor memasuki Q2.

Banyak trader yang masih libur di hari Senin, jadi kecuali ada pengumuman mengejutkan dari Gedung Putih, sepertinya pasar akan sepi hari ini.

Data makro kembali jadi fokus utama

PMI Manufaktur dan Jasa dari Eropa, Inggris, dan AS akan sangat diperhatikan investor pekan ini. Di bulan Maret, sektor swasta Eropa berkembang dengan laju paling lambat sejak 2017. Ini menimbulkan pertanyaan apakah kinerja ekonomi Zona Euro yang kuat di tahun 2017 hampir berakhir. Apabila ada indikator utama yang gagal mencapai ekspektasi lagi, maka akan mendukung argumen bahwa pertumbuhan global mulai kehilangan momentum. Ini juga akan menjadi justifikasi penurunan kinerja saham Eropa. DAX, CAC, dan IBEX merosot 6.35%, 2.73% dan 4.4% YTD (sejak awal tahun).

Inflasi Zona Euro

Trader Eropa akan sangat memperhatikan IHK awal Zona Euro untuk bulan Maret yang akan dirilis hari Rabu. Di bulan Februari, inflasi terharmonisasi tercatat di level 1.1%, turun 0.2% dari data Januari dan semakin jauh dari target ECB yaitu tak jauh dari 2%. Apabila data kembali mengecewakan, maka para pejabat ECB mungkin akan bersuara untuk menghindari pengetatan kebijakan moneter dan EURUSD dapat semakin tertekan setelah turun lebih dari 1.3% dari level tertinggi pekan lalu.

NFP AS agenda utama pekan ini

Rilis laporan ketenagakerjaan non-pertanian atau NFP AS di hari Jumat adalah agenda terpenting pekan ini. Lapangan kerja AS diprediksi bertambah 198,000 di bulan Maret vs 313,000 di bulan Februari. Sementara itu, tingkat pengangguran diprediksi turun 0.1% menjadi 4%, level yang terakhir kali tercapai 18 tahun lalu. Walau demikian, pertumbuhan upah tetap menjadi data terpenting, setelah merosot di luar dugaan dari 2.8% menjadi 2.6% bulan lalu. Pembahasan terpenting di pasar saat ini adalah apakah Fed akan meningkatkan suku bunga sebanyak 2 atau 3 kali lagi di tahun 2018, sehingga data ini memegang peran penting dalam memperhitungkan ekspektasi suku bunga yang akan terefleksikan pada harga dan memengaruhi arah pergerakan Dolar.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 05 Apr 2018, 08:51

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

US markets continue to shine



Gambar


Large swings in the equity markets have been the recipe of the day recently, as they swung lower on the back of political tensions in the US markets. However, the market saw some positive light as ADP payroll lifted to 241K (210K exp), which was well above what was expected by the market. As a result equity markets have been slightly more upbeat as of late, however the bearish trend has still looked to be the dominate player in the market at present. One other thing that that has been dragging on additionally has been the NAFTA agreement which many had hoped to finish this week, but now looks like it may drag on a little longer, but has provided a positive momentum as of late.

Gambar

As a result of the equity markets have so far pulled back above the 200 day moving average on the back of this bullish movement. However, I am overly cautious in this sort of market as resistance looks to be tight at 2664 as of late, and has the potential to fall lower to if the technical's come into play. Any break out above this is likely to also meet stiff resistance at the 100 day moving average above this level which is acting as dynamic resistance at present. Any bearish movements lower will hit 2628 and 2579 as support levels, with the 200 day moving average still the major player in this scenario between the bulls and the bears.

As mentioned yesterday the USDCAD continues to be a major player in the current market climate, as it looks to drift lower on the back of USD weakness, and Canadian economic data which so far has been robust and honest. Previous movements in favour of the CAD have been helped by strengthening oil markets, but that is less so the case in recent times as oil markets have been relatively bullish compared to the CAD. Which begs the question, how powerful is the correlation these days between the two pairs. Well for now it seems further mute, but it warrants further investigation based of the wildish movements we have seen in the USD.

Gambar

All in all the USDCAD has been a technical powerhouse, and there is further movement to go to reach some sort of consensus at this stage. So far the USDCAD head and shoulders pattern looks to be in full swing and is drifting lower at a steady pace. The market is likely to continue this pattern in the short term until the USD can take full control and the potential target of 1.2681 as support looks like a key target for traders.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 09 Apr 2018, 16:39

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Will the earnings season steal the spotlight from trade?



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Friday’s steep declines in Wall Street driven by weak employment report and a war of words between U.S. & China seem to have been shrugged off in Asia trade. President Trump’s tweets are becoming a little confusing to investors. After threatening to impose tariffs on additional $100 billion of Chinese exports, Trump tweeted that he will always be friends with President Xi and China will take down its barriers because it is the right thing to do. The trade drama will continue to create noise in the coming weeks, but it will be interesting to hear from the Chinese President at the Boao Forum on Tuesday, where he will likely show his country’s readiness to retaliate, while indicating a willingness to negotiate.

Oil traders will continue eyeing situation in Syria, after the Pentagon denied conducting air strikes on an airport in Homs. The missile strikes came a couple of hours after Trump warned of "a big price to pay", in response to the attack on rebel-held Douma.

While trade tensions and geopolitical risks are likely to keep appetite for risk in check, investors will have new information to digest this week, particularly earnings from big banks and U.S. inflation data.

Inflation data & FOMC Minutes

U.S. Consumer Price Index is expected to increase by 0.1% YoY, to 2.3%. Meanwhile, the core reading is anticipated to hit back the Fed’s target of 2%, after falling short for the past 11 months. The inflation reading along with the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday will probably lead to a repricing of interest rates expectations given any surprise. An upside surprise will likely push U.S. 10-year Treasury yields bonds towards 2.9%, having fallen 17 basis points from its February’s peak of 2.96%.

It’s the Earnings Season

As usual, the U.S. earnings season kicks off with big banks – JPMorgan, Citi Group, and Wells Fargo will report their Q1 results on Friday. According to Factset, the estimated earnings growth for the S&P 500 in Q1 is 17.1%, marking the highest earnings growth since Q1 2011. More interestingly, 26 companies in the Tech sector issued positive Earning Per Share guidance, well above the 5-year average of 11. With the S&P 500 down 2.6% for the year, I think there will be many buying opportunities, especially if trade tensions abate. The forward 12-month P/E ratio at 16.5 looks much more reasonable compared to a year ago.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 20 Apr 2018, 09:24

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Bears swipe on AUDUSD


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The Australian dollar continues to struggle on the global stage as markets have punished it for a weaker than expected employment report. With only 4.9k jobs created in the previous month, compared to the forecasted 20k. This is a drop when you compare it to February which saw 17.5K jobs created and the economy was looking a little stronger. To throw things further into the mix the participation rate has dropped as well to 65.5% (65.7%), meaning less people are looking for work, or have given up completely when it comes to finding a job. All in all it's tough times for the Australian economy, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is certainly looking like it may struggle to talk up anything positive about the economy apart from the fact that commodity prices are lifting due to Russian sanctions. The biggest benefactor though of all this chaos has been the AUDUSD which continues to struggle to find any bullish momentum at present.

Looking at the chart it's clear that a bearish wedge was in action, but the market didn't break out as expected. Instead we've seen sideways movement and now a strong bearish movement, which may indicate a return to the bearish trend. The 100 day moving average continues to be a clear level of resistance which no candles were able to close past. Now with the bears in control and support at 0.7760 kracked it looks likely that it may extend all the way down to the 0.7680 area which is likely to be a strong band of support. Beyond this we could see a further push to 0.7546, but that's likely to take some time or worse economic data coming out of Australia.

Recent reports today triggered some interesting moves for Oil markets, as it was report that there was no overhang in oil inventories anymore. In short this means that there is no longer a case of oversupply, and many OPEC nations will be breathing a sigh of relief - even though shale producers are working harder than ever to pump more oil out the ground. What was interesting was that the push today failed just short of the 70 dollar mark, which lends credit to recent thinking that oil markets are likely to range between the 60 and 70 dollar mark. If that is the case then technical levels are likely to come back into play heavily. More than anything though the fall today could most likely be attributed to the strengthening in the USD and traders should be aware of that.

On the charts the oil pull back will get the bears excited and 69.49 is looking like it may be a strong resistance level yet. Bears will be targeting the next two key levels at 67.21 and 66.05 as they push down the charts. In the event that the bulls look to take charge on a Friday then, 69.49 is the likely level to beat, but it would take a large effort to bust through.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 24 Apr 2018, 11:10

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Rupiah merosot di awal pekan trading



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Rupiah tertekan di hari Senin karena Dolar menguat dan kenaikan imbal hasil obligasi AS.

Risiko peristiwa utama untuk Indonesia dan Rupiah di hari Selasa adalah rilis laporan Investasi Langsung Asing (FDI) Q1. Peningkatan investasi langsung asing memperkuat potensi PDB dan dapat meningkatkan optimisme terhadap ekonomi Indonesia.

Mengingat sebagian besar mata uang negara berkembang di Asia saat ini tertekan, depresiasi tajam Rupiah sepertinya memang terjadi karena apresiasi Dolar. Jika Dolar terus menguat, USDIDR dapat menguji 14000 dalam waktu dekat.

Angka 3 lagi!

Angka 3 sering menjadi pusat perhatian di tahun 2018. Trump memperkirakan bahwa kebijakannya akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan tahunan menjadi lebih dari 3% per tahun. Federal Reserve diprediksi meningkatkan suku bunga sebanyak 3 kali di tahun 2018. Walau begitu, hal yang paling mengkhawatirkan bagi trader dan investor adalah jika imbal hasil Treasury 10-tahun AS mencapai 3%. Pada saat laporan ini dituliskan, imbal hasil 10-tahun AS hanya kurang 3 bps lagi untuk melampaui 3%, level yang belum pernah tercapai sejak 2014. Apa yang akan terjadi apabila level ini terlampaui?

Saat suku bunga mulai meningkat di bulan Februari seiring dengan ketegangan sektor perdagangan, saham AS merosot tajam. Semua indeks utama AS mengalami koreksi. Kenaikan suku bunga berarti kenaikan biaya kredit untuk perusahaan. Kenaikan suku bunga yang terus melonjak tajam akan menggerus profitabilitas secara signifikan karena biaya bunga yang meningkat. Investor juga akan menyesuaikan biaya modal yang dibutuhkan seiring dengan kenaikan suku bunga bebas risiko, sehingga saham menjadi kurang menarik. Pendapatan konsumen yang dapat dibelanjakan juga akan turun, karena mereka harus membayar cicilan kredit yang lebih tinggi. Jadi, kecuali jika pertumbuhan ekonomi, upah, dan profitabilitas perusahaan lebih besar dari kenaikan suku bunga, maka masa depan mungkin terlihat suram, terutama untuk saham.

Dollar bulls adalah yang paling gembira dengan imbal hasil yang terus meningkat, karena ini adalah peluang emas untuk mengambil posisi long. DXY berada di level tertinggi dua pekan pada awal perdagangan hari Senin, di atas 90.40. Bulls mungkin sedang menunggu konfirmasi dari pasar obligasi sebelum mengambil langkah berikutnya. Break di atas 3% dapat menjadi alasan bagi lebih banyak investor untuk memasuki trade long.

Harga minyak adalah hal lain yang perlu kita pantau. Pekan lalu, Presiden Trump menuduh OPEC sengaja membuat harga emas tinggi secara artifisial. Intervensinya muncul pasca laporan di hari Rabu yang menunjukkan bahwa Arab Saudi akan gembira jika harga minyak mentah meningkat ke $80 atau bahkan $100 per barrel. Ini sebuah pertanda bahwa OPEC dkk. tidak akan mengubah kesepakatan pemangkasan pasokan dalam waktu dekat. Walaupun cuitan Trump mungkin mendorong aksi ambil untung, namun dampaknya tidak akan panjang. OPEC sekarang perlu memperhatikan bagaimana harga minyak yang lebih tinggi akan memengaruhi inflasi dan suku bunga. Walaupun banyak negara saat ini kekurangan inflasi, kenaikan harga yang tajam akan semakin menekan ekonomi global yang sudah tampak lemah. Ini dapat membatasi harga minyak.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 26 Apr 2018, 10:25

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan terpukul oleh spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga BI


Gambar


Saham Indonesia kembali tertekan di spekulasi bahwa Bank Indonesia akan meningkatkan suku bunga demi memperkuat kurs Rupiah.

Kenaikan imbal hasil Treasury AS meningkatkan nilai tukar Dolar sehingga Rupiah dan mata uang pasar berkembang lainnya pun melemah. Intervensi BI akan memengaruhi cadangan devisa. Dengan kata lain, intervensi berkelanjutan untuk melindungi Rupiah akan semakin sulit apabila Dolar terus menguat. Walaupun ekspektasi pasar bahwa BI akan meningkatkan suku bunga dapat memperkuat Rupiah, tapi Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan sangat dirugikan dengan merosot 2.51% dan ditutup di level 6073.02.

Sterling melemah ke bawah 1.4000

Sterling kesulitan untuk bangkit ke atas level penting 1.4000 pagi ini karena investor mempertanyakan peluang kenaikan suku bunga BoE di bulan Mei.

Dolar yang melonjak tajam semakin menekan GBPUSD yang bergerak di kisaran 1.3957 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Inflasi Inggris melambat dan Mark Carney memberi isyarat berhati-hati, karena itu ekspektasi investor atas kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Mei pun berkurang. Pound sangat sensitif terhadap spekulasi kebijakan moneter dan dapat semakin melemah.

Dari sudut pandang teknikal, GBPUSD bearish di grafik harian. Penurunan tegas ke bawah support penting 1.4000 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju 1.3920 kemudian 1.3800. Agar bulls dapat kembali unjuk gigi, harga harus mencapai penutupan harian di atas 1.4000.



Sorotan mata uang - USDJPY

Yen tergelincir ke level terendah dua bulan baru yaitu 109.25 pada sesi perdagangan hari Rabu karena kenaikan imbal hasil obligasi AS memperkuat Dolar.

Dolar diperkuat oleh kenaikan imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah AS serta ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS. Karena itu, USDJPY berpotensi terus menguat. Dari sudut pandang teknikal, USDJPY bullish pada rentang waktu harian karena secara konsisten ditemukan Higher Highs dan Higher Lows. Penutupan harian di atas 109.00 dapat membuka jalan untuk peningkatan menuju 109.70. Sebaliknya, jika bulls gagal mempertahankan kendali di atas 109.00, level target berikutnya adalah 108.40 dan 107.80.



Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas merosot menuju $1324 walaupun pasar saham global pun merosot tajam.

Dolar yang menguat signifikan, ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS, dan berkurangnya ketegangan geopolitik adalah kemungkinan penyebab utama melemahnya harga logam mulia ini. Dolar diprediksi terus terangkat karena kenaikan imbal hasil obligasi dan spekulasi suku bunga Fed, sehingga emas dapat terus tertekan. Apabila PDB AS memberi kejutan positif di hari Jumat, bears mungkin mendapat alasan untuk mengantarkan harga menuju $1300. Walau begitu, perlu kita perhatikan bahwa emas masih berada di rentang $60 yang luas, dengan support di $1300 dan resistance di $1360. Harga emas sepertinya akan tetap berada dalam rentang ini, kecuali ada faktor pemicu baru yang menyeruak.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 04 Mei 2018, 10:57

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Rupiah stabil menjelang rilis data keyakinan konsumen


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Rupiah stabil sedangkan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan melemah menjelang rilis laporan Keyakinan Konsumen Indonesia bulan April. Rupiah berpotensi menguat apabila keyakinan konsumen Indonesia semakin membaik. Walau begitu, peningkatan kurs Rupiah mungkin terbatas oleh faktor eksternal. Karena Dolar dapat terangkat oleh prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS dan naiknya ekspektasi inflasi, mata uang pasar berkembang termasuk Rupiah mungkin tetap tertekan. Dolar yang menguat secara agresif dapat memaksa Bank Indonesia untuk meningkatkan suku bunga acuan demi menyelamatkan Rupiah.

Terkait prospek forex, Rupiah stabil terhadap Dolar dan harga bergerak mendekati 13935 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Dengan peningkatan antisipasi menjelang rilis NFP AS di hari Jumat, USDIDR dapat mengalami volatilitas lebih tinggi.

PMI Mengecewakan, Pound Melemah, Minyak Tidak Stabil

Investor yang mencari peluang cepat untuk menyerang Pound menemukannya pada hari Kamis setelah rilis data menunjukkan bahwa sektor jasa Inggris pulih lebih lambat dari yang diharapkan bulan lalu.

PMI sektor jasa Inggris meningkat menjadi 52.8 di bulan April, lebih tinggi dari bulan Maret yaitu 51.7, namun di bawah prediksi pasar yaitu 53.5. Data sektor jasa yang lambat ini dapat memicu pesimisme dan kekhawatiran bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi tetap terhambat. Ekspektasi bahwa Bank of England akan meningkatkan suku bunga pekan depan semakin menurun setelah laporan PMI yang mengecewakan hari ini. GBPUSD merosot menuju 1.3573 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Pound dapat semakin merosot apabila ketidakpastian Brexit dan penurunan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Inggris memberi risiko turun. Divergensi kebijakan moneter yang semakin besar antara BoE dan Fed dapat memberi alasan bagi bears untuk mengantarkan GBPUSD ke level yang tak pernah tersentuh sejak Desember 2017 yaitu di kisaran 1.3400.

Dari sudut pandang teknikal, GBPUSD tetap sangat bearish di grafik harian. Ditemukan level tertinggi yang konsisten lebih rendah (LH) serta level terendah yang lebih rendah (LL) sedangkan MACD melintas ke bawah. Breakdown di bawah 1.3640 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju 1.3580 kemudian 1.3500.

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Sorotan Komoditas - Minyak Mentah WTI

Harga minyak menguat di hari Kamis karena investor mengabaikan kenaikan persediaan minyak mentah AS dan berfokus pada pemangkasan pasokan OPEC dan perkembangan situasi nuklir Iran.

Aksi harga mengatakan bahwa WTI bulls tetap sangat mengandalkan ketegangan geopolitik dan kekhawatiran kekurangan pasokan untuk mempertahankan peningkatan harga saat ini. Harga minyak dapat semakin meningkat apabila AS mundur dari kesepakatan nuklir Iran 2015, tapi kenaikan ini sepertinya tetap dibatasi oleh produksi minyak serpih AS yang tinggi. Harga minyak tetap tidak stabil dan apresiasi Dolar dapat mempercepat penurunan. Dari sudut pandang teknikal, WTI bulls menampilkan pertanda awal kelelahan di grafik harian dan resistance terlihat di $69.00. Jika bulls gagal bertahan di atas level $67.50, maka harga dapat melemah ke arah $67.00 dan kemudian $66.00.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 08 Mei 2018, 15:03

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Emerging markets face punishment from stronger Dollar



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The unprecedented turnaround of fortunes for the US Dollar is continuing to leave a lasting impression on the FX markets, following the Dollar Index’s rise to above 92.80 on Monday, a new milestone for 2018. The emerging market currencies are now playing catch up with some of the excessive losses seen in developed currencies like the Euro, British Pound and Japanese Yen over the past couple of weeks, with the Dollar broadly stronger against the emerging markets at the start of the week. Asian currencies have also fallen victim to the latest round of USD buying momentum. The Japanese Yen, Singapore Dollar, New Taiwan Dollar, Korean Won, Philippine Peso, Indonesian Rupiah, Chinese Yuan, Malaysian Ringgit and Thai Baht are all suffering as a result of the USD’s strength at time of writing.

While there will be concerns that the extended run of Dollar-buying momentum risks spelling pain for the emerging markets in ways not seen since the Federal Reserve began raising US interest rates back in 2015, emerging market investors should not panic. It must not be forgotten that we are encountering an unexpected global theme where the Dollar has become unexpectedly stronger than the overwhelming majority of its counterparts. The British Pound has nosedived 5.5% since April 17th, while the Euro has lost 3.7% during the same period.

Rather than investors becoming concerned about the future prospects of the emerging markets, the real question to ask is - what exactly has encouraged such a turnaround in investor demand for the Dollar? Many will be inclined to look towards the 10-year US treasury yields, that are above 3% for the first time since 2014, as being the main catalyst behind the Dollar drive. Although I am personally leaning towards the view that increased interest rate differentials between the United States and its developed peers are what is causing the move in the US Dollar. Both the Bank of England (BoE) & European Central Bank (ECB) have seemingly backtracked from their own interest rate ambitions over the past couple of weeks. This has reminded investors that the Federal Reserve remains significantly beyond its developed peers when it comes to normalizing monetary policy.

Euro hits new 2018 low

The EURUSD has resumed its recent downward spiral by falling below 1.19 for the first time since late 2017. A new round of weak economic data has exposed further fears that the Euro area is at risk of entering another downturn. I personally feel that this view is a little unfair, considering that the Eurozone outperformed all expectations throughout the previous year. The latest EU data will however provide the ECB with more reason to remain hesitant on raising interest rates, meaning that increasing interest rate differentials between the United States and Europe risk exposing the EURUSD further to the downside.

China and Nafta talks still in spotlight

The first round of negotiations between the United States and China concluded at the end of last week with no breakthrough, as expected. While ongoing talks behind the scenes have eased tensions around a potential trade war between two of the largest economies in the world, investors will remain on high alert for trade threats, as long as the discussions fail to bring any tangible results.

Oil benefits from Iran risk

Persistent fears that President Trump will pull out of the Iran nuclear deal later this week have played a pivotal role behind the price of US Oil rising above $70 for the first time since November 2014. With Trump having referred to the Iran agreement in the past as “the worst deal ever”, it is not difficult to understand why investors are pricing in heavy risk premiums into the price of oil before Trump’s announcement on the Iran nuclear deal this evening. It does need to be remembered that there will be wider implications than the price of oil, if Trump does abandon the 2015 nuclear deal.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has already warned that the US would “regret” its decision to exit the nuclear deal, and concerns over how Iran might react to the United States pulling out do not appear to have been factored into other asset classes. One of the most difficult questions to answer is what impact the United States pulling out of the deal might mean for politics in the Middle East.

There is a likelihood of market uncertainty in the lead up to Trump’s “decision” on the Iran nuclear deal today, and I think the Japanese Yen and Gold will be sought from investors if there is a period of risk aversion in the markets.

Ringgit weakens ahead of General Election

Ahead of an extremely busy week for the Malaysian economic calendar, the Ringgit is showing signs of weakness against the USD.

The intense buying momentum in the USD has probably been the main contributor to the Ringgit fluctuations, but the general election later this week will still be seen as a potential event risk. If there is unexpected uncertainty with the election in Malaysia, it can’t be ruled out that the Ringgit could find itself at risk of further selling pressure.

Rupiah weakens as Indonesia GDP disappoints

The Indonesian Rupiah tumbled to its lowest levels since December 2015 at 14,000, after GDP growth in Indonesia showed signs of weakness in the first quarter of 2018. The headline GDP miss has been attributed to weak consumption, and the news failed to help the Rupiah pull away from its recent rut that has seen the currency take the position of the second-worst Asian performer over the past three months.

The slower pace of economic growth is going to make it difficult for Bank Indonesia to raise interest rates, despite calls for the central bank to take action in an effort to prevent the local currency from further weakness.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 09 Mei 2018, 14:49

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

GBP and AUD continue to struggle


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The pound has come under increased pressure over the last few weeks, as the so called Brexit continue to fail to come to any sort of conclusions at all for markets. Certainly there is a case for leaving the EU, however no politicians can come to any sort of agreement on it. Further to the downside has been UK retail sales m/m coming in at -4.2% (-0.75% exp), which is much worse than anyone expected, and a figure not seen since 1995 when records began. It's clear that off the back of this traders will be looking to offset losses and clear balance sheets.

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Looking at the GBPUSD it's clear to see that that the daily char reflects a number of key points, the first being that Brexit continues to be a major topic and that the initial positivity of a quick solution has quickly failed. Further to this economic data continues to be a mixed bag as can be seen from the retail sales figures above, which will put further pressures on UK businesses. For me the defining technical movement is of course resistance at 1.3575 holding up very strongly to any pressure at present and preventing anything but bearish movements from happening. The market as a result is looking increasingly like it may look to move lower to support at 1.3314 if the bearish pressure continues in the short term. However, a push down here may provoke a very strong bearish pressure.

The Australian dollar can get no breaks as of late, as it continued its bearish run against the USD even further today. This comes as no surprise as the trend has been quite bearish, but also retail sales m/m came in at 0% (0.2% exp), showing that the consumer sector is weaker than expected. While not largely off the market it continue to show that the Reserve Bank of Australia will struggle to lift rates in the near future if the status quo continues.

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Looking at the AUDUSD on the charts it's clear to see the bearish trend that has been in effect for the last month and looks set to continue in these circumstances. The AUDUSD has kracked through support at 0.7472 and is now looking lower on the charts in the face of bearish pressure, to the potential support level at 0.7371 as the bears look to target lower lows. In the event we do see any bullish pressure in the market expect 0.7472 to be the key area that will either allow the bulls to take control or reaffirm the bearish trend in this market, as the AUDUSD continues to be a bearish story in the interim.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 18 Mei 2018, 14:19

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

AUD struggles in market enviroment



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The Australian dollar got some positive news for a change as it faced off against the USD and won a round for the bulls after a month of bearish pressure. This has been positive on the fact that the Australian economy in the employment sector has performed better than most expected with Australian employment coming in at 22.6K ( 20K exp) and the unemployment rate lifting to 5.6% (5.5% prev) on the charts as a result. For now the Australian dollar continues to find itself under pressure, with the labour market being the only strong point. Despite all of this the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to look for positives for the future, with inflation being a key compontent for any future rate rises.

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The AUDUSD continues to climb high, but only on the back of weaker currencies as of late. The AUDUSD failed to make it through resistance at 0.7506 as traders are quite bearish above that level of pace that the AUDUSD continues to go through. Traders will be looking ot see if the market can indeed pressure here and breakthrough, but in reality it could be another bearish test followed by further pressure on 0.7472. I would expect in the long run that we could potentially see an extension to 0.7371 on the charts if the USD strength continues to be a mainstay for the market. All in all the AUDUSD finds itself in a unique position and I would expect to see further bearish pressure unless anything radical comes about in the markets.

The other key mover has been EURUSD which has struggled to find its feet under immense pressure from the USD but also weakness in Europe surronding Iran and Italy. The market has been looking for strong words from the EU and how much the Italian goverement changes will influence the EU, but so far it has shown little promise of anything radical in the way of changes. Despite all of this the EURUSD is always a favourite for traders and has slid down the charts reflecting USD strength. If we do see futher politiacl pressure we could see the EUR drop further against all major pairs.



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One of the key areas has been support has been 1.1760 which has so far defending againt any and all bearish movements lower on the charts. It's unlikely this key level will hold in the long run and we could see further slippage down into the low 1.10 levels if the USD strengthening continues. I would expect that any movements higher are likely to find strong resisstance at 1.1825 on the charts as this level has come under pressure in the past.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 21 Mei 2018, 15:39

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Key market events to watch this week



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Trade war on hold - for now

Asian stocks gained on Monday morning as investors learned that the U.S. and China agreed to drop the tariff threats against each other while they continue to work out an agreement. This was the second round of trade negotiations without clearly defined targets, suggesting that there’s still a long way to go. Today, a trade war may have been averted, but according to the joint statement from both countries, nothing is being guaranteed apart from China promising to increase American imports. It seems that tensions will remain for the foreseeable future and investors will have to live with it; unless the U.S. officially announces that it is imposing tariffs on China, the noise in the background will have little impact on sentiment.



Nicolás Maduro wins Venezuelan elections

As was widely anticipated, Nicolás Maduro won another six years in office in Sunday’s elections. The Venezuelan economy, which has been struggling for several years, may enter a deeper crisis if the U.S. and other western countries step up sanctions against the nation. Brent crude, up 0.7% at the time of writing, might benefit further from the increasingly grave outlook for Venezuela, if proposed sanctions result in a steeper decline in output.



FOMC minutes

The dollar climbed to a new 2018 high on Monday, with overall gains of more than 6.3% from its lowest point in February. The U.S. currency has been benefiting mainly from improved economic prospects and higher interest rates. Whether the upward trajectory will resume in the short run, is likely to depend on the FOMC minutes scheduled for release on Wednesday. The Fed has changed its language with respect to inflation and become slightly more bullish, but its latest statement didn’t indicate a faster tightening in monetary policy. Whether the Fed is prepared to fight inflation, or whether it will be more cautious about raising rates too quickly, will be reflected in the minutes. However, with a number of speeches scheduled from Fed officials this week, it will be interesting to hear their thoughts on how oil above $80 may impact policy.



Italy’s new government

Italy's new government is likely to be formed within the next few days and provide a new headache for Brussels, since populists will be leading it. Italian borrowing costs rallied sharply over the past several days, as investors sold Italian debt after a leaked draft showed the new coalition’s intentions to request the cancellation of €250bn of Italian government debt. How things go from here depends on whether the new government follows through on its promises, that include a massive spending spree that conflicts with the EU’s budgetary rules, or whether it starts to gradually scale back .



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 24 Mei 2018, 13:44

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Yen and Lira fight back against USD



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FOMC minutes were released not too long ago and they reveal that the June rate hike is very likely to happen after FED members were positive about the state of the economy and the recent rise in inflation. It also showed that if inflation did increase beyond forecasts they FED would likely let it run instead of risking bumping rates to soon and causing a pinch effect in the economy if it tapered off; as a result the USD is a little weaker as many had expected the FED to be more hawkish, rather than let inflation run in this instance. The FED also noted the recent risks, with China and NAFTA being threats to the US economy and progress overall for the expansion of the economy. However, there is little the FED can do but try and negotiate the turbulent waters that come with politics and trade agreements.

One of the big movers on the back of the USD weakness has been of course the USDJPY, which moved quite heavily as a result of bad economic data (US home sales) and of course the dovish response from the FED in regards to inflation.

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The USDJPY had been moving in a tight channel up the charts as the USD appreciation and positive risk sentiment saw traders looking to exit the USDJPY. However, after today's movements that channel has now been broken and even a bullish fight back was unable to contain the bears as they looked to swipe a little lower. Traders may be looking now to target key support at 109.347 and with further potential falls to 107.718 on the cards as well, but it's also worth noting that the USDJPY does not break levels easily and can just as easily move sideways until it finds direction. In the event this is just a pause I would look for markets to have another krack at resistance at 111.083. The long term for the USDJPY does look to be bullish, but the positive risk climate must continue to enable it to do so, and there will inevitably be days where these sort of movements happen.

The other back mover made reference to by my colleagues has been of course the Turkish Lira which has come under immense pressure over the last few days, as a strengthening USD and economic/political factors have undermined the currency heavily - much like the Russia crisis a few years ago.


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The Turkish Central Bank has taken the extraordinary step to intervene without any formal meeting, lifting interest rates by 3% in the wake of all the aggression. This has had a positive effect when it comes to stopping the bleeding for the currency, as it touched on resistance at 4.9200 but has since fallen back sharply since the rate rise. Markets will now be looking for potential support levels, but it's hard to tell where they start and stop with possible areas being at 4.4916 and 4.2840, if the bears continue to fight back.



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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Postoleh FXTM Official » 28 Mei 2018, 16:54

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Sepekan Mendatang: Fokus Pada Perkembangan AS-Korea Utara, PDB & NFP AS



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Rupiah sedikit menguat terhadap Dolar yang secara umum menguat. USDIDR sedikit di bawah 14130 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Kalender ekonomi pasar Indonesia relatif sepi pekan ini sehingga arah Rupiah mungkin ditentukan oleh faktor eksternal. Apabila Rupiah terus menguat mendekati level psikologis 14000, optimisme bahwa kenaikan suku bunga BI berdampak positif pada Rupiah akan meningkat.

Sentimen membaik karena Korea Utara menawarkan perdamaian

Setelah Presiden Donald Trump mendadak membatalkan pertemuan bulan Juni bersama Kim Jong-Un di Singapura, Korea Utara di luar dugaan menawarkan perdamaian.

Korea Utara menyatakan tetap terbuka untuk memberi "waktu dan kesempatan" untuk Amerika Serikat dan berkenan bertemu dengan Trump "kapan saja, bagaimana saja". Korea Utara juga mengatakan bahwa pertemuan ini "sangat penting" untuk memperbaiki hubungan AS-Korut, sehingga masih ada harapan bahwa pertemuan akan dapat dilaksanakan. Pasar akan sangat memperhatikan bagaimana respons pemerintahan Trump terhadap pesan perdamaian Korea Utara. Sentimen risiko dapat membaik apabila ada isyarat bahwa ketegangan antara AS-Korea Utara semakin berkurang.

PDB mengecewakan, Pound melemah

Bulan trading ini sungguh berat bagi Pound seiring dengan semakin tipisnya ekspektasi bahwa Bank of England akan meningkatkan suku bunga di bulan Agustus.

Sentimen terhadap Pound memburuk pekan lalu karena laporan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris turun hingga ke level terendah sejak 2012. Pertumbuhan PDB Inggris melambat menjadi 0.1% di kuartal pertama 2018 menurut estimasi kedua. Selera beli Pound langsung menurun. Dari sudut pandang teknikal, GBP tetap bearish di grafik harian karena secara konsisten level tertinggi yang lebih rendah (LH) dan level terendah yang lebih rendah (LL). Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah 1.3400 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju 1.3320 dan kemudian 1.3250.

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Dollar stabil menjelang rilis PDB & NFP Amerika Serikat

Dolar sepertinya akan tetap stabil terhadap sejumlah mata uang mayor menjelang rilis PDB dan NFP AS yang sudah dinantikan.

Dolar berpotensi semakin menguat apabila PDB dan NFP sama-sama melampaui ekspektasi pasar. Dari sudut pandang teknis, Indeks Dolar tetap sangat bullish di grafik harian. Selisih suku bunga semakin lebar dan menguntungkan Dolar. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juni juga semakin tinggi. Karena itu, Dolar sepertinya masih akan terus menguat.

Apakah reli minyak sudah mencapai akhir?

Kemungkinan OPEC dan Rusia melonggarkan batasan produksi guna mengimbangi penurunan produksi Venezuela dan potensi penurunan ekspor Iran membuat harga minyak berpotensi melemah.

Aksi harga mengisyaratkan bahwa bulls mungkin kesulitan untuk mendapat dukungan dari faktor risiko geopolitik untuk mempertahankan reli saat ini. Spekulasi penurunan pasokan global adalah hal yang sangat mengangkat harga minyak sebelumnya, jadi faktor fundamental dapat berubah apabila OPEC melonggarkan batasan produksi. Harga minyak terancam melemah karena potensi kenaikan produksi Rusia, OPEC, dan minyak serpih AS yang mengakibatkan kekhawatiran terjadinya oversuplai.

Dari aspek teknis, minyak mentah WTI berisiko merosot menuju $60 apabila bullsgagal mempertahankan kendali di atas $70.




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